When it comes to the 2024 Commanders, BMitch needs some accountability from the analytics
“A lot of analytics people like to say negative things, and a lot of media is about clicks.”
That was a quote from Brian Mitchell during a discussion about what analytics are saying about the Commanders, shortly after analytics guru Neil Greenberg joined BMitch and JP Finlay Wednesday.
“I’d like to think the numbers are the numbers, and they were really bad,” JP said when Brian said the above. “If you take a database that has the 2023 standings, you don't need to get too far down the rabbit hole analytically; they were 4-13 and had the worst point differential in the NFL, so if you want to base your projections from there and go forward, I can conceptualize that, right? There are numbers to support that there's not going to be much of a turnaround.”
Great, but what Brian needs from analytics is also accountability, in part because the numbers are basing things off last year – a team that was completely different than what we see now.
“What I know about analytics, I know that whatever I put in, I get out – so if I don't put in all the information, I never would get the whole story. I get what I want to get – trash in, trash out,” Brian said. “A lot of times when I hear a lot of numbers, based off of my education, I immediately ask, what did you really put in? Did you want those numbers or did you want something else? Because a lot of times stuff is left out; they never put in the guy that fights a little harder and this, that, and the other - so when you don't add that, then you're gonna get the numbers that you get.”
And what you’re getting in 2024 is nowhere near 2023’s data, and time for a BMitch rant.
“This is the point of the year where we are starting to get a lot of these different comments and people talking about the team, and I don't normally buy a lot of what I hear normally because I know this team is so different,” Brian said. “If you assume they're gonna be the exact same or just slightly better, I think you're mistaken. I am not here to bash analytics, I understand analytics is something that helps the game out today, but it’s not the only thing that helps out the game. Some analytics people will make you think that because they say what you're supposed to do, that's gonna happen, but eventually, it’s going to come down to the players on the field - who's better, who's stronger, who's most consistent, who makes the least amount of mistakes, and I don't think analytics ever bring all that stuff into it.”
An important evaluation tool, but again, just one tool, and nowhere near as big as the eye test.
“We are in a battle now where it's analytics against the people that are just straight football. I think there is some level of analytics involved all the time, when you have people going in and looking at different plays and seeing what somebody does, but today, we just plug in numbers and get stuff thrown back out by a computer and call it fact,” Brian said. “Well, a lot of times you forget to put certain things in, and you're gonna get numbers that may be skewed one way or the other. If I want something to make a team look bad, I don't put in all the different numbers that may count, and I think anything about this football team this year, to be totally honest with you, is probably skewed.”
