DiPietro: How Week 17 SNF flex could mean Commanders hold their playoff destiny as they take the field

As we enter Week 16 in the NFL, the 9-5 Commanders are a game up on the Seahawks (who are technically tied with the Rams for the NFC West lead but behind on the tiebreaker) for the seventh and final NFC Playoff spot, but are also just one game behind Green Bay for the sixth seed – and they would have the tiebreaker on the Packers if both teams finish with the same record, because Washington’s 6-3 in the NFC while Green Bay is 5-4.

The 7-7 Cards and Falcons are lurking, as technically are the 8-6 South-leading Bucs, who have already lost to the Falcons (and beaten the Commanders) and play Atlanta again Week 18.

Never count out Dallas or San Fran, who need to win out and get A LOT of help to get the seventh seed, but right now, it’s the Commanders and five teams jockeying for the final spot in reality…and Week 17 may be the week we figure it all out.

The schedule for Week 16 is Commanders vs. Philly, Falcons vs. Giants, Rams vs. Jets, Cardinals vs. Panthers, Packers vs. Saints, Seahawks vs. Vikings, and Bucs vs. Cowboys – and so, I hate to be a pessimist coming down on DC, but as a New York-based Eagles fan covering DC football, it’s pretty easy to see chalk holding out in that division this week. And if it holds elsewhere, here’s where we are entering Week 17 for the third through ninth seeds:

Bucs (9-6) – South leader, has tiebreaker over LAR on conference record (7-3 vs. 5-5)
Rams (9-6) – West leader
Green Bay (11-4)
Washington (9-6)
Atlanta (8-7) – has tiebreakers over ARZ/SEA based on conference record
Seattle (8-7) – has tiebreaker over ARZ based on head-to-head win
Arizona (8-7)

And lo and behold, look at the Week 17 schedule: Bucs vs. Panthers, Rams vs. Cards, Seahawks vs. Bears, Packers vs. Vikings…and Commanders vs. Falcons.

Think about this: if all shakes out right over the next two weeks, the Commanders could clinch a playoff berth while ending Kirk Cousins’ dreams of one in the Sunday nighter. The latter is easy: if the Bucs and Falcons match each others’ results this weekend, and then Tampa Bay beats Carolina, a Falcons loss puts them two back with one to play of both the division and the third Wild Card.

The former requires more gymnastics given tiebreakers – the Commanders lost to Tampa but beat Arizona, breakers against Seattle and the Rams would need to go to common games at the least, and who knows what happens if Green Bay ends up falling – but the point is this: if you don’t have NFL RedZone or Sunday Ticket, it’ll be worth the price for Week 17.