Neil Greenberg predicts a blowout on Saturday - and maybe not just for the Lions?
Neil Greenberg is, as you know, the only analytics guy Brian Mitchell likes, which is why he's the resident stats geek for the BMitch & Finlay Show.
This week, though, his visit with the guys brought about some staggering numbers…as in, one offense is gonna stagger the other.
"I am feeling a little apprehensive for the local club, and I don't think I'm breaking ground here; this is probably the toughest matchup for them to date, but it's a very important game," Greenberg said. "Detroit's just a really good football team, and you have to wonder how much longer Washington can be the team of destiny. I think we're gonna see a blowout here one way or the other, and it's probably going to be Detroit, but I can certainly see a path with Washington considering how they are just YOLO on fourth down, and that really can take the top off an offense in terms of just giving them more bites at the apple. But, it could also put Detroit into some favorable field position, and Detroit likes to go on fourth down in their own right, so I think we're gonna see a lopsided event."
Wait, so if Washington could blow out Detroit, what does THAT look like?
"The defense has to play better than it's played probably all season, and there probably is gonna have to be a turnover or two, and if they do go on fourth down, they're gonna have to continue to be as efficient, if not more efficient. than they've been during the regular season," Greenberg said. "They could win by 14 or more, or, the offense's slipper could gall off and the run ends, but I think that the path to victory does involve a little bit of luck in terms of turnovers, and there's nothing wrong with that."
That said, Greenberg puts his money where his mouth is, and if you find his X account, you'll see an alternate line bet for Commanders to win by 14 plus – at plus-2500!
"It's a long shot, but I don't put out stuff that I'm not willing to back up with my own bankroll," Greenberg laughed. "Again, you have to look at it as, could it be a three-point win? Sure, but I just don't think that's what we're gonna see here. I think either Washington's run is going to end in startling fashion, or Dan Quinn's gonna show that he can continue making all the right moves and things fall in Washington's favor. So yeah, I think that 2500 for the Commanders to win by 14 or more is probably a decent price, albeit a long shot."
Take a listen to Greenberg's entire visit as he goes a little more in-depth on Commanders-Lions as well as the rest of Divisional Weekend!
