Neil Greenberg says forget analytics or betting lines - Washington can beat Tampa Bay outright

BMitch & Finlay’s analytics ‘geek’ Neil Greenberg doesn’t need to go too deep into those numbers to make what may also not be a bold prediction: he likes Washington as a winner on Wild Card Weekend.

“Washington and Green Bay are the two underdogs I think can win outright. The last time Washington played Tampa Bay was Week 1, and I think we can toss that out completely, because the defense is much, much better,” Neil told Brian and JP Wednesday. ““I think offense is key in football, especially in the playoffs, and I think Tampa Bay is gonna have trouble with Jayden Daniels.
They've had some trouble with mobile quarterbacks this season, and it adds another layer in terms of confusing the defense. I don’t think Tampa Bay's defense is that great, and these are two evenly matched teams for the most part, but I do think that having Jayden Daniels is the difference.”

It’s still pretty surreal that the Commanders are not only in the playoffs, but the sixth seed on top of it, and even Greenberg can’t believe what happened so quickly.

“It’s a huge step forward. What a lot of people thought to be a two or three year rebuild became a one-offseason rebuild, and a 12-win season is huge,” Greenberg said. “If you would have told me that Washington would win 12 games, I would have thought they would have won the division, but Philadelphia overcame a slow start and was able to do that. But still, to be talking a meaningful second season in year one is a remarkable feat, and I think everybody in that organization deserves a lot of credit.”

Here’s an interesting number from Neil, though: since 2002, nine teams have won 10 or more games with a rookie QB, and of those nine, only the 2013 Redskins won less than eight – and in fact, four won 10 or more, five made the playoffs the following year, and two won the Super Bowl while one other won their conference championship.

“I wouldn't expect a drop off, I would expect this team to remain competitive,” Greenberg said. “The front office deserves the benefit of the doubt in terms of getting the right people in the building, and the coaching staff deserves the benefit of the doubt of doing what they need to do to make those players successful. I think that we're in the competitive window right now, and Washington should absolutely make the most of having a guy like Jayden Daniels on an entry-level contract; that really is a cheat code to win in the NFL, because he is being paid below market value, so they can maximize his window by spending elsewhere. I think this all surprised a lot of people, and who knows what this roster will look like bext year, but this is a well-run organization.”

But for now, let’s focus on this year, and yes, Greenberg thinks a Washington win is not only probable Sunday, but likely.

“Tampa Bay’s a good team, but I think that Washington has the chance to really exploit something that makes them very difficult to deal with this year,” Greenberg said. No coach has been able to really contain Jayden Daniels for the most part, and I think people are maybe leaning on that first game too much, but that's a nothing burger for me. The team is much different, and I think Tampa Bay had an easy path to get into the playoffs. I understand why they’re three-point underdogs, but I think Washington’s the better team, and I think they beat Tampa Bay outright.”

Take a listen to Greenberg’s entire visit above!