(670 The Score) One of the Cubs' Kyles looks like he's getting himself back to his form, as Schwarber has posted a slash line of .333/.400/.556 over his last 14 days and .467/.529/.867 in the last week to recover from a slow first half of April. Now it's time for the other one to do the same.
Hendricks has logged just 25 1/3 innings in his five starts in 2019, with 5.33 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, both well over his career rates of 3.14 and 1.13, respectively. His hard contact rate has ballooned to 41.9 percent over a career 28.1 percent, while his soft contact rate has shriveled to 11.6 percent when compared to his overall 22.0 percent. The fact that his pitches are meeting so many barrels is reflected in a BABIP against of a whopping .405, which is a notable divergence from his career .281.
Normally BABIP resolves over larger samples, but the question of a regression for Hendricks is complicated by both the quality of contact and the velocity of his pitches, which are interrelated for someone lacking margin for error. The good news is that the peripheral statistics are kinder to him, as his 3.70 FIP is close enough to his normal 3.52. What's not so good is that all of his pitches are moving at career-low speeds: the fastball at 86.2 mph, curveball at 70.6 and changeup at 78.3.
And that matters. Analyst Joe Sheehan explained exactly how on the Bernstein and McKnight Show on 670 The Score on Tuesday.
"I would be very concerned," Sheehan said. "With the velocity, he's almost down to where there's nobody but knuckleballers at that point. The research has been done -- essentially, for every mile per hour harder you throw your four-seam fastball, you lop four-tenths of a run off your ERA. So if Hendricks goes from 88 to 86, that's almost a full run of ERA you'd expect him to go up."
But not all is lost for the pitcher to whom the Cubs committed a contract extension worth $55.5 million over four years. To hear Sheehan's expectations explained, the average annual value actually makes sense.
"Do I think he's a 5.30 ERA pitcher? I don't," he said. "But when you look at the velocity drop and the contact rate, are you now looking at a No. 4/No. 5 starter as opposed to the No. 2/No. #3 or even the Cy Young candidate he looked like in 2016?"
Hendricks has rebounded from similar stretches of soft throwing and ineffectiveness in the past, as recently as last season. His 2019 scouting report on Fangraphs.com took note of how he was able to get some jump back on his fastball to right himself for the final three months of 2018: He had an 2.65 ERA over that time after being at 4.17 in his first 17 starts.
So it's back to the lab for a self-professed technician to make the most of what he has. He's done it before.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's Bernstein & McKnight Show in middays. You can follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein.
