(670 The Score)It's probably just bad luck, but that doesn't mean it's not vexing for the Cubs. They have been two teams in 2019: the one that's 39-18 at Wrigley Field after a weekend sweep of the Brewers and the one that has gone 21-33 everywhere else.
The smart people who analyze the game chalk it up to variance, because there isn't much to home-field advantage in MLB and 162 games usually proves to be plenty enough to diffuse statistical noise. Good teams just don't become bad ones on the road, but it sure seems like this one keeps trying to do so, and it has president of baseball operations Theo Epstein at wit's end.
"We're obviously trying to figure it out, but if we knew what it was, we would've fixed it," Epstein said on the Mully & Haugh Show on 670 The Score on Friday. "I will say it hasn't been a hallmark of this group. We've played well on the road most years in this window. But this year, honestly, we're embarrassed by the road performance, not having won a road series since May 20. And to me, more troubling even than that is we've had seven road series against the division and we're 0-7. We've lost every single road series against division opponents.
"That's just not going to win anything. That's not going to be competitive in a division, if every time you go play a division opponent on the road, you lose. That has to change. That has to change immediately. We just hope the intensity of a pennant race and the desire of this group to rewrite the script from what happened last year and win the division will carry the day and that our talent will carry the day."
Not including their 7-2 win Sunday in which they banged out 14 hits, the Cubs are slashing .257/.341/.450 at home and .245/.321/.442 away, which doesn't appear to be a material difference. The same can't be said for the run prevention side, however, where the splits are stark. At home, Cubs pitchers allow a line of .233/.299/.382 with a 3.09 K/BB rate and 1.179 WHIP. On the road, those respective numbers balloon to .264/.340/.441, 2.31 and 1.429.
So what gives? As unsatisfying as the answer may be, the cause is most likely nothing.
Fangraphs.com senior writer Jay Jaffe discussed it on the Bernstein & McKnight Show on 670 The Score on Friday, and his level-headed take might only further unnerve those trying to solve the problem.
"These things tend to be relatively fluky," Jaffe said. "Even one year of road stats is not necessarily predictive. Half the season or two-thirds of a season are not necessarily predictive. You can do things like build for your ballpark, you can look at things like the unevenness of the schedule, but I think you chalk it up to 'just one of those things.' It's obviously something that frustrates people about this team, but I don't think it's particularly revealing from a statistical standpoint."
But that means the only thing to do is not do anything and simply allow for the performances and the numbers to regress to a more satisfying and representative mean. Epstein and his front office may try as they might to get their heads around it and create a plan of action, but it may be a complete waste of their time. The road struggles might continue and merely result in making a fluke flukier or they could just end, starting to become a better reflection of the first-place Cubs' overall quality. The point is that we have no idea.
Feel free to tick through the laundry list of old saws regarding road woes -- late hours in the bars away from wives and kids, circadian rhythms interrupted by air travel and time changes, a generalized lack of comfort away from trusted routines or the lack of a supportive home crowd. None of it holds up.
This group is anything but the Mantle/Maris Yankees when it comes to carousing. Private planes and top-notch hotels aren't exactly riding the bumpy rails from city to city, and the Cubs' issues occur even when taking a one-hour bus trip up Interstate 94 or puddle-jumping to St. Louis. And they may be the most vocally supported road team in all of baseball, with noticeable and audible throngs of Cubs fans wherever they may be.
That they have to improve on that horrendous road record goes without saying. They absolutely must play better. But whether anyone involved can actually make that more likely to happen is entirely unknown.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's Bernstein & McKnight Show in midday. You can follow him on Twitter @Dan_Bernstein.
