(670 The Score) There's no such thing as a "clutch" hitter. We know this now, given ample statistical record and a better understanding of sample size value that tells us that a good hitter is a good hitter and a bad one is a bad one. And given enough opportunities, most of the situational stuff comes out in the wash.
But we also know that there are those who tend to perform below their usual levels at certain times, not as able as others to remain themselves in critical moments in games. For lack of a better term, we still call this the "choke" factor, something that has proved to exist. It's affected by bullpen specialization and improved awareness of leverage earlier in games than once was considered meaningful, leading to some higher degrees of difficulty by design, but the fact remains that some players are less than their best when it matters more.
It's a way of defining "clutch" as "absence of choke." In other words, someone who can be who he is all the time, no matter what.
Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant has struggled to do this in his five MLB seasons, as the numbers paint an obvious picture of a great hitter who hasn't come through in the big moments as one might expect.
For his career, Bryant has posted a wRC+ of 143 in low-leverage plate appearances and 147 in medium-leverage situations. In high-leverage moments, however, he has posted only a rate of 92, which means he goes from being about 45 percent better than average down to eight percent worse. And there's more: His wRC+ with the bases empty is 135, and it rises to 146 with men on base. But with runners in scoring position, it drops to 125. That's still really good, but it's a dip.
This season, however, Bryant is getting it done. His go-ahead home run in the eighth inning of the Cubs' 12-11 win against the Giants on Wednesday night was just the latest key contribution from Bryant, who's outperforming those career rates.
With the bases empty in 2019, he's at 127 wRC+. With men on, he climbs to 153, then sits at 130 with men in scoring position, an overall improvement from his career number. What's more impressive is the uptick in the most material moments. He's at 121 in low-leverage opportunities, 160 in medium-leverage and 157 in high-leverage, including a situational split-best slugging percentage of .607 in those plate appearances. The difference in wRC+ means that Bryant has been 65 percent better in the chances that decide outcomes this season, and that's no small development.
It's more than remaining oneself, as Bryant has found a better version of Bryant right now when we hold him up to his own baselines of performance. It's entirely fair to wonder if it's a product of variance or if can be replicated and sustained, but for now it merely should be noted and appreciated.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's Bernstein & McKnight Show in midday. You can follow him on Twitter @Dan_Bernstein.
