The Bears opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Packers in Week 1 NFL odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. Now months later and with kickoff looming Sunday at Soldier Field, the Bears are a 1-point favorite.
Here are betting notes as the rivals meet again.
The Packers have an eight-game against-the-spread winning streak in the series. Their last ATS loss came as a 6-point road underdog in December 2018.
Barring late line movement, the Bears will be favored against the Packers for the first time since Week 1 of the 2019 season. They failed to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite in Matt LaFleur’s first game as Packers head coach.
Since 2003, among all NFL teams, the Bears have the fourth-worst ATS winning percentage (.461) while the Packers have the second-best (.562).
The Packers have two straight Week 1 ATS losses after covering in five of the previous six season openers. The Bears have covered in four of their last six Week 1 games, including in 2022 as a 6.5-point underdog in a win over the San Francisco 49ers.
Justin Fields is 8-17 ATS as the Bears’ starter, the worst record among all NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 starts since 2021. Fields went 9-8-1 ATS as Ohio State’s starting quarterback from 2019-'20.
Jordan Love is just 1-0 ATS as the Packers’ starter — and nearly helped the Packers in the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles last season — but went 16-8 ATS in his two full seasons as Utah State starter (2018-'19).
The Packers also have an eight-game moneyline winning streak in the series. Their last outright loss came as a -220 favorite in that December 2018 game.
Since 2003, among all NFL teams, the Bears rank 19th in winning percentage (.474) and 18th in moneyline return on investment (-1.6%). For example, if you bet $100 on each of the Bears’ regular-season games since 2003, you’d be down approximately $500.
The Packers have a two-game moneyline losing streak in Week 1 after winning their six previous season openers. The Bears have won two of the last three Week 1 games after dropping their previous six.
Fields has a moneyline ROI of -45% in 25 regular-season starts (5-20), the worst among all NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 starts. His ROI at Ohio State was +11%.
Love didn’t win his one career NFL start, therefore his moneyline ROI is -100%, and he had a moneyline ROI of -8.4% from 2018-'19 at Utah State.
In totals betting, Bears’ unders went 7-10 last season, just their second sub-.500 under season since 2014. As of Thursday, the Bears-Packers total sat at 42.
The over has hit in four of the last six games in the series, including Week 14 last season, thanks to Christian Watson’s 46-yard touchdown run with two minutes remaining.
Since 2005, among all NFL teams, the Packers are tied for the second-best over ROI (+4.1%) despite back-to-back seasons of -10.4% (2021) and -9.7% (2022).
The over is 12-13 in Fields’ starts, including 7-2 in his last nine starts. The two misses over that nine-game stretch came by two and four points.
Week 1 has the second-worst league-wide over ROI since 2005. Only Week 11 overs have been less profitable (-14.5%) than Week 1 overs (-8.4%).
The over hasn’t hit in more than nine Week 1 games since 2010 (12-3-1).
You can view updated Bears-Packers odds, sportsbook promos and more online sports opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook.