(670 The Score) Over three days, we're looking at the pros and cons of the three paths that Bears general manager Ryan Pace can take in the first round of the NFL Draft: trading up, staying put and moving back. We've already looked at the argument for trading up to get a quarterback and staying put at No. 20.
The conversation around trading down in the NFL Draft is fascinating because it's very clearly the savviest way to build a talented roster, yet everyone hates it. About 90% of NFL teams would be smart to spend most of that weekend maneuvering further back – something your dad does NOT agree with. Cries to normalize trading down (which are, of course, correct) have existed in and around the nerdiest corners of the internet for some time already, but Michael Lewis hasn't written a book about it yet; the movement still has a ways to go before it's accepted draft canon.
If you're not familiar with the rationale, here's what it boils down to: The NFL Draft is more or less a coin flip, and the more opportunities you have to flip said coin, the more likely you are to get the result you want. If that seems painfully obvious, it's only because you're right. Focusing too closely on a player's traditional "round" grade obfuscates the more important truth, which is that there isn't actually a huge talent disparity between, say, the 32nd and 42nd picks.
To use a totally random example, let's say the Chicago Bears have, I don't know, the 20th pick in the draft next week. We'll go ahead and assume they need a quarterback, but even in a historically deep quarterback draft class, they aren't in a position to get one. It's a tough spot to be in! Not having a long-term plan at quarterback kneecaps the internal value of that pick some, but trading into the top five is a luxury few teams can afford or even consider. In this extremely hypothetical situation, it would make a whole bunch of sense for the Bears to have two, three or four shots at picking a prospect whose ceiling probably isn't any lower than whomever they were thinking about taking at No. 20 in the first place. Basically, you can get Andy Dalton an OT3 or you can get Andy Dalton an OT5, WR4-6 and TE3.
To the best of my knowledge, the downside to this strategy is that it's boring? The first round of the draft is quite literally a primetime event, and the pageantry of it all is something fans clearly enjoy. Seeing your team pick the next capital-g guy who will return the organization to glory is an exciting moment on the NFL calendar, and persevering through 756 mocks only to have your team pull an Irish goodbye at the last second is a buzzkill. The draft is basically a really long concert where the opening act steals the show, so it's not totally unreasonable to be bummed when you purposely wait to show up until the band tries out their weird new stuff, just because it was more cost-effective to buy tickets then. Just play the hits!
Trading down can oftentimes come with a certain level of presumed job security, which, for the Bears, is entirely its own conversation. But it's objectively the smartest option for teams in their position – ones looking to retool several positions on the fly and hoping that it transforms an 8-9 (17-game schedules are so ugly) team into a 9-8 one. What I'm saying is, maybe make some backup plans next Thursday night.
Cam Ellis is a writer for 670 The Score and Audacy Sports. Follow him on Twitter @KingsleyEllis.
