(670 The Score) Baseball Prospectus released its annual PECOTA algorithm projections earlier this week, and it caused White Sox fans to raise an eyebrow.
PECOTA projected the White Sox to finish with 83.1 wins and in third place in the AL Central, just one season after they went 35-25 in the pandemic-shortened campaign and reached the playoffs as a wild card. On Thursday morning, Baseball Prospectus writer Rob Mains joined the Mully & Haugh Show to explain why PECOTA sees regression coming, and he cited an expected drop-off in the White Sox lineup's performance.
"The big change in the ratings is that I think PECOTA is seeing a full amount of regression, less performance on the offense," Mains said. "The pitching should still be decent. But I don't think anybody's expecting Jose Abreu to duplicate what he did last year. Of course, he's 34 and PECOTA tends to be down on older players, to say they can kind of crumble pretty quickly. Adam Eaton is on the wrong side of 30 as well.
"The thing that I noticed is that PECOTA is not quite sold on Tim Anderson as a .300 hitter, which, again, we might disagree about that. And it's not ready to buy in on Nick Madrigal being the on-base machine that he certainly was in limited play last year. So, it's mostly an offensive shortfall."
Abreu won the American League MVP award in 2020, hitting .317 with 19 homers and 60 RBIs in the short season. Anderson followed his AL batting title in 2019 by posting a slash line of .322/.357/.529 (an .886 OPS) in 49 games.
The White Sox signed Eaton and star closer Liam Hendriks this offseason while also acquiring right-hander Lance Lynn in a trade from the Rangers.
"PECOTA still likes the rotation, and the addition of Liam Hendriks there definitely makes for a stronger bullpen," Mains said. "But I think there's expecting a little less offense in a division where the Twins are at least trying, the Royals are at least trying, I don't know about the Indians, and Detroit is at least trying."
