LAKE FOREST, Ill. (670 The Score) -- Hindsight is always 20-20, and that's certainly true when it comes to the Bears and their franchise-altering decision at quarterback nearly three years ago.
There was no consensus in the top three quarterbacks of that 2017 NFL Draft, with Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson all considered top prospects in their class. A fair number of scouts viewed Trubisky as the top quarterback available. Plenty of mock drafts reflected that belief by listing Trubisky as the first quarterback off the board.
Three seasons later, the Bears' big bet on Trubisky hasn't paid off, and it looks like a damning failure when contrasted with the success of Mahomes and Watson. That decision will be in the spotlight again Sunday, when Trubisky's Bears (7-7) host Mahomes' Chiefs (10-4) in primetime at Soldier Field.
Bears general manager Ryan Pace and his brass were so enamored with Trubisky that they traded up from No. 3 overall to No. 2 to make him their pick, believing great days were ahead in Chicago. In hindsight, we know now that the Bears prioritized the wrong qualities in their evaluation.
The Bears saw Mahomes' special college tape from Texas Tech -- featuring constant improvisation and throws from seemingly impossible angles -- but believed that style wouldn't translate to the NFL. So the Bears wrote off Mahomes.
The Bears were concerned about Watson's flaws at Clemson -- he had 30 interceptions over two seasons as a starter -- and didn't value highly enough his pedigree as a national championship quarterback and leader. So the Bears wrote off Watson.
Unlike many teams, the Bears viewed Trubisky's one season of starting experience at North Carolina not as a red flag but instead untapped potential. Pace bought a ticket to the Sun Bowl and sat in the stands instead of registering himself for a scout's credential. Pace was so sold on Trubisky, so intent on keeping that interest private, that he didn't disclose it with then-coach John Fox until the day of the draft.
The Chiefs traded up to the 10th pick and drafted Mahomes, then gave him a year to develop as a backup behind the scenes with the right scheme and coaching. The Texans took Watson with the 12th pick and named him their starter in Week 2 of his rookie season. The Bears brought Trubisky in to learn under a lameduck coaching staff and operate an antiquated offense. They had no real plan for when he should become the team's starter.
The Bears thrust Trubisky into the starting role in Week 5 of his rookie season, setting him up for failure in being surrounded by poor talent and coaching. It's also become clear over the past two seasons that Trubisky hasn't been an ideal fit for what coach Matt Nagy wants to do with his offensive system, and Nagy hasn't adjusted enough to take advantage of Trubisky's strengths. The Bears have been more concerned with managing Trubisky's confidence than using a scheme that fits him best.
Simply put, the Bears haven't done right by Trubisky.
Pace hasn't spoken with reporters in a group setting since September, before Trubisky's inconsistencies were showcased in his pivotal third NFL season. Pace is expected to meet with reporters at the end of this season, at which point he will be pressed with plenty of questions about Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson.
Why did the Bears view Mahomes' talent and body of work in college with skepticism instead of potential? Why didn't the Bears give Watson the consideration a college quarterback of his caliber deserved? Why has Trubisky failed so much compared to his draft classmates? These are questions that need to be answered.
Pace may never publicly reveal the details behind the Bears' big draft decision in 2017, as he looks to protect his organization, his scouts and his own reputation. But the tantalizing possibilities of what the Bears could've accomplished with a quarterback like Mahomes or Watson will linger -- they'd be a legitimate Super Bowl contender every year.
The picture is always crystal clear through the lense of hindsight, but there's no excusing the Bears for overlooking what they could've had instead of Trubisky.
Open field
The burden of this lost Bears season rests on the shoulders of Nagy, and it grows with each disappointing loss for a team that had Super Bowl aspirations.
The Bears billed their centennial season as one of great hope, and they failed. That falls on Nagy, the second-year coach who spoke since the wild-card round loss last January of how his team would respond with championship resolve.
Two games remain in this regular season, and the Bears have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Their fate is sealed.
"I'll always look back to this year and the fact we didn't make the playoffs and give ourselves a chance for a Super Bowl attempt, I'll always be frustrated with that," Nagy said Thursday. "I'm going to hold everybody accountable, including myself."
Accountability certainly should start with Nagy, whose leadership in 2018 was heralded as the Bears rose from worst to first in the NFC North. Nagy was named AP Coach of the Year for his work in the Bears' turnaround season.
In the minds of Nagy and his team, the Bears were just a made field goal away from a championship run. Much of Chicago bought in, overlooking the flaws of this team. It's why this season was such a surprise and great disappointment.
Nagy must look at his work as the leader of a team that suffered a letdown and his role as play-caller for an offense that never established an identity.
4-down territory
1.) At what cost?
Bears defensive lineman Akiem Hicks emerged from the blue sideline medical tent in Green Bay with a smile on his face last Sunday. He had been knocked down but not out.
Hicks twice aggravated his left elbow injury in the loss to the Packers, Nagy said postgame, but he pressed on with the hopes of helping the Bears save their season. They lost despite the valiant effort of Hicks pushing through the pain after missing the previous eight games.
And despite Chicago now being eliminated from playoff contention, it appears Hicks will keep playing.
"We're all rolling," Nagy said Thursday when asked of Hicks' status.
Hicks later indicated there's still the possibility that he gets shut down for the final two games, acknowledging the potential of sustaining a more serious injury. Both Hicks and the Bears are hoping he can avoid surgery, so why would he play?
With Hicks on the field -- whether it's with two healthy arms or one -- the Bears can get a more thorough evaluation of their personnel on defense, as he elevates the play of others.
The Bears appreciate the player and person they have in Hicks, which is why they need to think carefully about the risk of playing him these next two games.
2.) Reward for Robinson
The tone of Nagy changed when posed the question. Should receiver Allen Robinson have earned Pro Bowl honors -- or at least been named an alternate?
His response was notable.
"I'll just say this, A-Rob is a pro," Nagy said with his anger clear. "I'll just leave it at that. A-Rob, he's special. A-Rob, he's unbelievable. Unbelievable. That word 'snub.' A-Rob is unbelievable and needs to be in the Pro Bowl."
While Robinson won't be making the trip to Orlando, perhaps there could be a greater reward for him this offseason. The Bears should start making plans to lock him in on a long-term deal.
With two games left, Robinson has already set a new career-high with 83 catches. He has 1,023 yards and seven touchdowns as well. He signed with the Bears on a three-year, $42-million deal in March 2018 hoping to showcase himself as a top receiver after suffering a torn ACL on the first series of the 2017 regular season.
Robinson has proved his place this season, and he's only 26 years old. Pace and his brass shouldn't even imagine what their offense would look like without him.
With Robinson set to enter a contract season in 2020, the Bears shouldn't hesitate to extend him. By the opener next September, Robinson should be paid like the top receiver he has proved to be.
3.) Kwit time
Earlier this week, the Bears placed linebacker Danny Trevathan on injured reserve, ending his season and perhaps his tenure with the team.
Trevathan, who turns 30 in March, is set to become a free agent, and it seems quite possible the Bears will let him walk.
On Sunday, the Bears will turn to Nick Kwiatkoski at inside linebacker for his seventh start of the season. He has shown constant improvement and has a career-best 50 tackles with three sacks and an interception. Kwiatkoski has asserted himself in coverage too.
"That's the biggest place (of improvement) is just being able to cover backs out of the backfield, because we all know he can play the run game really well," Nagy said of Kwiatkoski.
Kwiatkoski is also set to become a free agent this offseason, and his market value is expected to be less than Trevathan's. In other words, he could be a better bargain for the Bears.
4.) Pro Bowl Patterson
The Bears didn't just sign Cordarrelle Patterson to be the dynamic kick returner he has been. They were also drawn by versatility he could provide.
Patterson has been a special teams star not just as a returner but also as a punt team gunner. One of his best showings in that role came Sunday on a well-timed hit of the Packers' Tramon Williams that forced a fumble -- only to have Patterson penalized on a controversial call. Bears special teams coordinator Chris Tabor pointed to the instincts it takes for Patterson to make that play, even if it was penalized.
"I've stated it multiple times: He's a good football player," Tabor said. "The skill set that he has, not a lot of guys have his size and his speed and his strength and his instincts. I think that's what makes him really a special football player."
Patterson was named to the Pro Bowl as a special teams player, a nod to his all-around abilities.
"He can do a lot of things, and you don't see a lot of good returners be really good cover guys, and he's one of those guys, so we're blessed to have him," Tabor said.
Quote to note:
"There are no do-overs. We are where we are. Our careers are going in different paths and they will for the rest of time. They're always going to be compared against each other."
-- Trubisky on comparisons to Mahomes.
Injury report
CB Prince Amukamara (hamstring) -- The Bears pulled Amukamara from their loss last Sunday and turned to Kevin Toliver at cornerback. Amukamara is still dealing with his hamstring injury, which limited in practice Thursday. It seems likely that he yields at least some playing time to Toliver.
OT Bobby Massie (ankle) -- Massie has been present with the Bears and is trending the right way, but he may not play again this season with the team out of contention.
WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion) -- There has been no progress for Gabriel with his concussion, and he has likely played his last football for this season.
Game prediction (10-4): Chiefs 24, Bears 16
Draft night 2017 will be in the spotlight for four quarters Sunday night at Soldier Field as Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs by Mitchell Trubisky and his beleaguered Bears.
Chris Emma covers the Bears, Chicago's sports scene and more for 670TheScore.com. Follow him on Twitter @CEmma670.
