There are over 1,000 ways to bet on Super Bowl LV but one of the most popular wagers is which player will win the game's Most Valuable Player award. Quarterbacks dominate Super Bowl MVP, so it's no surprise Patrick Mahomes (-105) and Tom Brady (+200) are the two overwhelming favorites to take home the award this year.
Because Mahomes and Brady's odds are so low, many bettors look for value on other players. Our sports betting team of Thomas Casale, Vikas Chokshi, Reed Wallach, and Lucy Burdge give their top picks to win Super Bowl MVP.
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Casale: Shaq Barrett and Devin White 50-1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
I'm giving you two for the price of one because I know my colleague Reed Wallach is going to discuss Barrett below. My best bet bet in the game is Barrett to record a sack but I put a little money on both him and White to win MVP. I got Barrett at 60-1 but think there's value down to 50-1.
It's obvious from my bets that I believe the Buccaneers' defense will have some success against the high-powered Chiefs offense. If Tampa Bay pulls the upset, the defense will be a big reason why, putting players like Barrett and White in the MVP discussion.
White may be the best defensive player in the NFL not named Aaron Donald, most people just don't know it yet. The guy is all over the field and I believe he can change the game by making a big play or two. White has racked up 10+ tackles in five of his last six games, including 12 versus the Chiefs in their first meeting. I see him being an absolute force on Sunday.
In a game where most people are expecting a lot of points, I'm taking two defensive players to win MVP. We'll see how it turns out.
Chokshi: Leonard Fournette +2500 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
I’m going in a different direction here than the popular QB position, mostly because I like the value in these odds I’m getting. I’ve also eliminated Mike Evans, because if he or any of Tampa’s pass catchers blow up, it will be attributed back to TB12.
If the Bucs do win the Super Bowl and Brady doesn’t win the MVP, the award will most likely goto Fournette or a defensive player. The case for Fournette makes sense. The Chiefs' defense was No. 31 in rush DVOA and pass DVOA against running backs (per Football Outsiders) during the regular season.
It also looks like Fournette has taken over the lead back role for the Bucs, even with the return of Ronald Jones. He’s carried the ball 19, 17, and 12 times this postseason, and he isn’t stopping now. I see the game playing out as a close one, meaning TB won’t abandon the run and Fournette will have a favorable game script. Another plus is that his targets in the pass game have been there this postseason, with four, six, and seven targets in their three playoff games.
If the Bucs win and Fournette has over a 100 all-purpose yards and a couple of TDs, this award is his.
For what it’s worth, I’ve also thrown some coin down on Shaquil Barrett (+5000) and Jason Pierre-Paul (+7000). Same reasoning for both. KC’s offensive line is depleted and in flux, especially after losing offensive tackle Eric Fisher to an achilles injury. Mahomes’ toe injury might come into play and Tampa Bay has brought the pain to opposing quarterbacks this season. Case in point, the Bucs are coming off a game where they sacked Aaron Rodgers a season-high, five times. The Packers were another team with a key injury to an offensive lineman, and Tampa took advantage.
As for defensive guys winning the award? Two of the past seven Super Bowl MVP’s have gone to that side of the football. Von Miller won the award in 2016 and Malcolm Smith did the same in 2014. Miller immediately comes to mind, as he wreaked havoc in Super Bowl L. He applied constant pressure on Cam Newton, sacking him 2.5 times, and forced two fumbles to win it.
Both guys have had success at getting after the QB, so if either can have the same impact as the aforementioned Miller, I like their chances at these odds
Wallach: Shaquil Barrett +6600 (PointsBet)
I also have a bet on Jason Pierre-Paul at 70/1 to take home MVP, but I’ll highlight Barrett.
The Bucs 'defensive line is going to be the key to a Tampa Bay victory. If the unit is able to take advantage of a banged up Kansas City offensive line and get pressure on Patrick Mahomes, the Bucs are live to win this game.
After racking up three sacks in the NFC championship game, I like Barrett to make some noise again.
Need a narrative? Sure. Barrett was part of the Denver Broncos’ front seven that made Cam Newton’s life hell in Super Bowl L. He’s been in the big game before, and is playing very well heading into it.
If Barrett is able to get a sack or two and force a turnover, I expect he will enter the conversation for MVP. Yes, that’s a lot of stuff needing to go my way, but at 50/1 I’ll take my chances.
Burdge: Tom Brady +200 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
I’m picking the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl and there would be no one other than Tom Brady who’d win the MVP in the event they’re victorious. It’s really as simple as that. Brady turned Tampa Bay into Tompa Bay in his very first year with the team and has led them all the way to a Super Bowl.
His teammates rave about what a leader he is and the consensus is they are in the championship game because of him. Bet on Brady to win his fifth Super Bowl MVP award. The four he has now is already a record. Everything Brady does is a record.