Did Dan Campbell blow it? Did the aggressive style of going for it on 4th down finally do in the upstart Detroit Lions in their attempt to make the franchise's first-ever Super Bowl? Were two decisions on 4th down the reason the San Francisco 49ers managed to overturn a 17-point halftime deficit for a 10-point lead late in the NFC title game's final quarter?
Seth Walder, sports analytics specialist at ESPN, joined the Hoffman Show to discuss the Lions head coach's decisions and explore the intricate model used to determine the optimal decisions on 4th down and gain insights into the analytics behind key coaching choices.
And if you've ever griped about a television graphic or announcer saying "the analytics say go for it" you will want to listen to why that isn't exactly the best way to express the reality.
"I think in both cases they were effectively toss-ups," Walder said about Campbell's two second-hald decisions. "When you look at our numbers they show a super close decision. In both cases, we narrowly – narrowly – preferred going for it. So I'm talking 0.3 percent to go for it and 0.2 percent to go for it. So really close calls."
Listen to the full conversation between Walder and Hoffman about why the decisions were so tight and more on analytics on the audio player above!