We are down to one final game in the NFL season and on paper, it's a great matchup. Super Bowl LV pits the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes. It should be an instant classic.
The betting line for the game has gone between Chiefs -3 and -3.5 throughout the week. Of course, if you don't want to wager on the side, there are plenty of other options with a wide menu of prop bets for gamblers to feast on.
Our sports betting team of Thomas Casale, Vikas Chokshi, Reed Wallace, and Lucy Burdge broke down the game from every angle. Here is their best bet for Super Bowl LV:
Casale: Shaq Barrett to Record a Sack +115 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
I admit there is some randomness to this bet but I love Barrett to be a factor in the game.
Barrett is coming off a three-sack performance in the NFC championship game against the Green Bay Packers, and he had some success the first time these two teams met, recording one sack and two quarterback hits. He also forced a fumble in that game.
The biggest storyline in this game is Kansas City being without OT Eric Fisher. It hasn't been talked about nearly as much as it should in the national media, but Fisher not playing because of an Achilles injury is a huge loss against one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. I expect Tampa Bay's defense to have success pressuring Patrick Mahomes on Sunday. If the Bucs win, Fisher's absence will be a big reason why.
Again, I understand this may not be the most popular bet on the board. However, it's my largest wager of Super Bowl LV. Look for Barrett to have a big impact on the game. I also tossed a few bucks on him to win MVP at 60-1.
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Chokshi: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Patrick Mahomes is the best in the game, but the Bucs should be able to get pressure on him in this matchup. Kansas City will be without their key offensive tackle Eric Fisher, which is really bad timing against this Todd Bowles led defense and an attacking Buccaneers defensive line. Mahomes' toe injury may come into play, limiting his ability to pick up yards using his feet.
Tampa Bay’s defense also does a great job at limiting chunk plays, as they are top 10 in both explosive run and pass plays allowed, and first in adjusted sack rate. When it comes to stopping the run, Tampa Bay ranks first in defensive rush DVOA per Football Outsiders. On the flip side, Kansas City is ranked 31st in that same metric.
On offense, yes, they have Tom Brady, but the Bucs also have several weapons to complement him that will cause some matchup issues for Kansas City. The Chiefs are the worst team in football when it comes to the opponent's red zone scoring percentage, so the Bucs should be able to take advantage and trade in field goals for touchdowns. That is the only way to hang with Mahomes and co.
Tampa Bay will technically have home-field advantage with Raymond James Stadium hosting the Super Bowl. With the craziness of the pandemic, traveling and routines, that's another small advantage for this Bucs team.
I like the value on Tampa in this spot. I bet them earlier in the week at +3.5, but would take them at 3 as well. I'd suggest waiting until closer to game time to possibly pick up the hook, as oddsmakers have told me they're seeing the majority of bets coming in on Kansas City.
Wallach: Buccaneers-Chiefs Over 55.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
For starters, I like Tampa Bay in this game. I believe that the defensive line is going to be able to get pressure on Patrick Mahomes and force him into a few mistakes. However, the unit will not be able to completely shut down the Chiefs' offense. It’s not possible.
It sounds contradictory, but alas this total has drifted into a buy point of 55.5 for me.
Mahomes is going to get his, just like I expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to get their points. Kansas City’s poor rush defense and the deep threats on Tampa’s side make me confident each offense will find the end zone four times, cashing this over.
I expect aggressive play calling from both coaches and some fourth down tries. Yes, poor execution can lead to empty possessions, but it can also lead to short fields and quick scores.
Also, both clubs are inside the top 10 in interceptions during the regular season, so an ill-timed interception can change the script and make it a track meet. The over 55.5 is my top play for Super Bowl LV.
Burdge: Buccaneers-Chiefs Over 55.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is going to be a high-scoring game that will not disappoint. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady lead powerful offenses. The huge hype for this matchup won’t fall flat and this isn’t going to be a boring game. Brady might even run in a touchdown or two himself, so take a look at that prop as well.
The Buccaneers are 11-8 on the over this year, while the Chiefs are 9-9. Both quarterbacks and the teams behind them are going to come out swinging. The score will surpass 55.5. I like the over now that it's dropped a couple of points since the opening number.