Through the first four weeks of NFL betting, the most common spread is three points. Thirteen of 64 games have closed at the number, a 20% clip that falls within the average percentage over the last 20 years.
There have been at least three games with a three-point spread each week. As of Tuesday’s NFL lines at BetMGM, there’s only one such game for Week 5, the Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3). There are, however, six more games at 2.5 or 3.5.
Historically, the three-point spread isn’t great for home favorites. They have an ROI of -12% since 2003, a number largely due to a miserable run since 2019:
2024: -4%
2023: -8%
2022: +5%
2021: -30%
2020: -26%
2019: -4%
If the number holds, the Commanders would be a three-point home favorite for the first time since Week 1 of the 2022 season. They covered in a six-point win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars were also on the losing end the last time the Browns were a three-point road underdog. The Browns covered in a five-point win in Week 2 of this season. That’s the lone three-point road underdog game in the last three seasons.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated Browns-Commanders odds and all Week 5 NFL betting.
You can also view futures odds for each team, including Commanders Super Bowl odds and Browns Super Bowl odds. New and existing users in Ohio and Washington, D.C., can check sportsbook promos for Odds Boosts, Refer A Friend bonuses, and more.