Will Washington's No. 2 pick bust? Kevin Sheehan on why Commanders should pick a QB anyway
Kevin Sheehan started his Thursday morning – 21 days before the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft – reading a column from Bill Barnwell on ESPN that had a tagline of "Why Washington picking at two will likely bust."
Sheehan, laughing, said, "I was like that's interesting. Really? That's what we're gonna have the headline?"
Of course, the new headline on the full piece leading the 'Worldwide Leader' was later "Drafting QBs is hard! Why history tells us two 2024 first-round picks likely will be busts" and the headline of the article is: "NFL draft QB hits, misses: What history says about 2024 class."
But the crux of Barnwell's article is looking 40 years of draft data, "there's really one thing that jumps out more than anything else," Sheehan said, "and that is, you should be drafting a quarterback if you love a quarterback in the first round of the draft.
"Because of the rookie wage scale that was part of the collective bargaining agreement of 2011, the value of the upside far outweighs the risk for the position and the actual scale."
Barnwell comes to the conclusion that if there is a quarterback there thar you really like, there is massive value in taking a quarterback in that first round, Sheehan said.
Here's some of what he wrote that Sheehan says is the piece's main takeaway: "In the big picture, what we think of as the typical first-round quarterback is a lot more impressive than what teams actually project to land, especially after adjusting for where they're being selected. As we approach the 2024 draft and what might be an unprecedented run of quarterbacks from Nos. 1 to 4, history tells us it would be a pleasant surprise if two of them turned into franchise-caliber passers. We're more likely to see two players who wash out of the league than two future Hall of Famers."
So there is a greater possibility of a bust than a hit. But Barnwell writes, that even knowing that history it should not stop teams from drafting quarterbacks.
Sheehan reads Barnwell: "Taking a quarterback in Round 1 is more valuable now than it has ever been, arguably, in the history of the game. If the Bears, Commanders, Patriots or any of the other teams linked to signal-callers have a quarterback they love in the first round, they should do what they need to do to land them. Just have a healthy expectation for what might happen next."
"That sums it up perfectly," Sheehan said. "You have to take one if you like one. The way the game has been tilted toward passing, the way the game has been tilted toward mobility in a quarterback. The way the game has been tilted toward offense in particular. And the way the game has been tilted in the rookie wage scale to incredible value if you get your quarterback through the draft. You have to take one if you don't have one.
"But you have to have an understanding or a healthy understanding as he writes of what might happen next. And what might happen next is, you're not gonna land on the guy you like."
The full segment from the Kevin Sheehan Show can be heard above!
