Your guide to betting on the NFL on Thanksgiving Day

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This year, the Winners Club podcast acts as your liaison to literal truck loads of cash on Thanksgiving. It’s already going to be stressful when your aunt brings up President Biden’s infrastructure bill as the turkey is served, so why not give yourself exponentially more anxiety?

First off, here’s how last week went:

MUT: 1-2     HIT KC -2.5 v DAL; MISSED SEA +2 v ARI, CIN/LV over       15-18

JOHN: 3-0      HIT NE -6.5 @ ATL, MIN +1.5 V GB, ARI -2 @ SEA     19-14

SCHEIM: 2-1   HIT PHI -1.5 v NO, GB/MIN over; MISSED NYG +11 @ TB    17-16

LUCY:                           2-1

TOTAL:  6-3                                                                            53-49

Time: 12pm. Depending on if the patriarch and/or matriarch of your family is still with us, you’re just sitting down to eat. Or you’re sitting around wondering why you didn’t pretend there was more traffic so you don’t have to make small talk until the food is served. You look and see that the NFL schedulers have blessed our wretched souls with Bears @ Lions. You begin drinking.

There’s some division between Mut and Scheim on Bears and Lions in this one, but Mut specifically hawked a same-game parlay of Bears moneyline with David Montgomery over 69.5 rushing yards at +130.

Time: 4pm. You’re just waking up from a tryptophan-induced coma to see who won the Bears-Lions game, if you won any money, or if the Bears left Matt Nagy at the airport. You’ve slept through several arguments, much to your delight. No violence yet. The Raiders are the road team rolling into Jerry World.

My vision of the matchup between the Cowboys and Raiders, regardless of if CeeDee Lamb clears concussion protocol in time for kickoff, is a game script somewhat similar to that of the Patriots-Panthers matchup. Dallas’ defense is good enough to hold the Raiders down in the teens, but a banged up Cowboys offense leans more on the run game after seeing all of their non-Lamb/Cooper wide receivers drop every pass thrown their way last week. Dallas wins, but doesn’t cover -- but the real play here is under 51.5.

Scheim’s same-game parlay here is Cowboys moneyline with Tony Pollard over 10 rushing yards and the under at +295.

Time: 8pm. Most of your family has secretly vowed to not speak to a select few until Christmas. They say they're “done” with those family members, but will ultimately cave and invite them next year because they’re family. Jokes are made about Aaron Rodgers’ familial relationship, which devolves into a vaccination argument. The Bills roll into New Orleans to play the Saints.

A unanimous selection of the Bills to cover the six-point spread in this one defined this week’s podcast, as Mut and Schiem agreed with my logic. The Saints are in danger of having neither Alvin Kamara nor Mark Ingram healthy for this game, in addition to both of their starting offensive tackles, against a Bills defense that was gashed by the best running offense in the NFL last week but looks like they’ll have Tremaine Edmunds back at middle linebacker. Trevor Siemian won’t be able to beat this Bills defense on his own.

Even if Josh Allen doesn’t rebound completely from a game last week in which five of his turnover-worthy passes resulted in only two interceptions and his receivers dropped five passes, the Saints may be without two of their top pass rushers on defense. Buffalo’s offensive line wasn’t the problem against the Colts last week, and it’ll be hard for them to be the problem this week. A complementary game of football for the Bills, defined by short fields for the offense, could be in the cards here.

CHECK ON INJURIES BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL DECISIONS!

Here are the rest of our picks for Week 12, to be counted against our season records:

Podcast Episode
Winners Club
"Road Teams In Domes": Week 12 & Thanksgiving Betting Guide | Winners Club, Ep. 79
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Mut:         NE/TEN under 43.5; LAR -1 @ GB; SF -3 v MIN

Scheim:      PHI -3.5 @ NYG; LAC -2.5 @ DEN; SEA/WAS under 47.0

John:         NE/TEN under 43.5; BUF -6 @ NO; DAL/LV under 51.5

Tweet us your picks for Week 12 of the NFL season!

@MutWEEI | @Scheimtime | @AndersenJA