A year ago, the Devils were the NHL's darlings.
After 23 games last season, New Jersey was 14-5-4, good for first place in the highly competitive Metropolitan Division. The Devils shocked the league by going wire-to-wire in playoff position, their first such berth in six seasons after finishing in the Eastern Conference basement in 2016-17.
Only a few names were changed in the Devils' media guide for this season -- none of whom were of major consequence -- yet this team bears little resemblance to its immediate predecessor.
Strange since at this point last season injuries had caused the Devils to receive nothing from glue-guy center Travis Zajac and shut-down high-scoring right wing Kyle Palmieri after 13 games.
MORE: Schwei's Devils Notes: Overtime Struggles Continue
If you look at stats, as The Athletic's Corey Masisak did in a recent feature, there isn't a large disparity between the two seasons. In fact, the Devils have improved in many of the advanced five-on-five metrics, which had been considered one of their biggest weaknesses.
So, why are the Devils staggering home from a dreary back-to-back in Tampa Bay and Florida at 9-10-4, one point ahead of the tanking Senators for last place in the conference?
Here's why:
1) The Surprise Factor
There's no way to measure how much the Devils were overlooked a year ago and the impact it had on their hot start. Opponents certainly expressed surprise at New Jersey's newfound team speed during that period. Who had ever heard of Brian Gibbons? Or Jesper Bratt? Those two swift additions combined for 17 goals and 12 assists in the first 23 games.
Teams are definitely more prepared for New Jersey this season. Left wing Taylor Hall is just a goal and an assist off the pace from his MVP 2017-18 campaign and Palmieri had the hot stick in October (nine goals in nine games), but there hasn't been enough offense generated by the bottom nine forwards. Whereas the Devils once rolled over four lines that could hurt you with speed, this season they're getting very little off the rush when Hall isn't on the ice.
The Devils aren't sneaking up on anyone this season.
2) Third-Period (And Overtime) Blues
Much has been made that the Devils are 82-0-13 when leading after two periods since the 2015-16 season, the only NHL team that hasn't suffered a regulation defeat. That hasn't made them immune from late-game heartbreak this season.
Monday night was the fifth game in which the Devils held a third-period lead and didn't win. Two losses were in regulation.
Florida dropped the Devils' record to 0-4 in overtimes this season. New Jersey has been outshot 14-3 in these extra sessions. I knew smooth-skating defenseman John Moore, the overtime guru who left for Boston as a free agent, would be missed a bit here, but not to this extent.
Keith Kinkaid has been the goaltender of record in all four OTLs. Last season, he went 5-1, with another five games undecided after five minutes of overtime. He then went 3-2 in shootouts.
It's agonizing to think about all the lost points the Devils could have banked this season.
3) Decrease In Goaltender Theft
When folks question me about what's wrong with goalie Cory Schneider, who hasn't won a regular-season game since Dec. 27, spanning 17 starts, I open with the injury caveat -- he underwent hip surgery in the offseason after playing through it for much of 2017-18. Then I tell them that he just doesn't stop enough pucks.
It's really that simple. It doesn't matter that the vast majority of goals against are "not Schneider's fault." Goalie bloopers aren't a thing. It's their job to keep pucks out of the net anyway, anyhow.
When's the last time Schneider "stole a game"? It happens to the Devils every few weeks.
Kinkaid hasn't exactly stood on his head that often since his 4-0 start, either. He was in net for four of the aforementioned blown third-period leads.
Last season, the Devils rode the hot goaltending of Schneider early and Kinkaid late to secure their playoff invitation. Many of the names this season are the same, but their games are not.
For a FAN's perspective of the Nets, Devils and Jets, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1.
