The Mets have already taken a pretty big hit to their starting rotation with the loss of Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard profiled to be the 1a to Jacob deGrom's 1, or "ace" role, before the startling development.
But the Mets do still have a solid, veteran foursome following their Cy Young repeater in Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha. If and when we ever get back to playing baseball, there might be a lot of games crammed into a short period of time. Having Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman as multiple innings or spot starter guys certainly helps, but the end game in the bullpen is usually what it comes down to — and the Mets are counting on a lot of bounceback there.
Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia all have a lot to prove in 2020 — if there is a 2020 baseball season. Early indications from an abbreviated spring training were promising, but that means little at this point. Familia dropped 30 pounds over the winter, looked great and was throwing the ball well in Florida. His sinker had some bite to it, the command for his pitches was a lot sharper, and he seemed to have more confidence in his split-finger and in general. Familia, who saved a total of 94 games over two seasons for the Mets in 2015 and '16, saw his ERA soar to 5.70, his walk rate nearly double (6.3 walks/per 9 innings) and his WHIP rise to 1.733 during the 2019 season, the first of a three-year contract.
Betances was coming along slowly, much slower than he would have preferred according to him, but certainly understandable after suffering shoulder and lat injuries in addition to partially tearing his Achilles tendon in the one and only game he appeared in for the Yankees last season. But this was as dominant a pitcher as there was in baseball for five years (2014-18). The righthander struck out at least 100 batters in each of those five seasons, and his career 14.6 strikeout per nine innings rate is third highest (minimum 200 innings), as is his 11.3 WAR among major league relievers. His exit velocity is always rated low, and he has a career 2.36 ERA. There is a lot to like there, and the extra time afforded to Betances should help him get back to his previous form.
Diaz is the real X-factor here, and no one dropped more precipitously from 2018 to 2019 than the Mets closer. The 26-year-old had two solid seasons in Seattle before breaking out in 2018, registering 57 saves in 61 attempts while striking out 15.2 batters per nine innings and walking just 2.1 per nine. He had a 1.96 ERA and a 1.61 FIP over 73 innings. It was a year to remember.
Putting on a Met uniform, it was a year to forget.
Diaz saw his ERA and FIP almost triple. His 5.59 ERA was 151st out of 158 relievers. His FIP was 4.51. His hard contact rate rose by almost 20%, and his average exit velocity went up as well, as did his walk rate to 3.4 per nine.
But there were signs that Diaz was redeemable — he didn't lose his fastball, which has averaged just over 97 mph during his major league career, and his strikeouts per nine innings actually increased to 15.4 per nine. While his strikeouts and swinging strikes went down, his strikeout rate was still a healthy 39%, and he was fifth amongst relievers in swinging strikes at 18%.
Diaz' slider had a .387 wOBA, but the expected wOBA was .272. Nonetheless, Diaz surrendered 15 ninth inning home runs in 2019, and it was a crusher to the Mets' hopes. But down in Florida, anyway, Diaz seemed to have better command and location, and his confidence — all but destroyed last year — seemed to be intact this spring.
If and when baseball itself does bounce back, we'll see whether the Mets bullpen has some bounceback in it as well.
