With Tom Brady's exit out of New England, there is a vacuum in the AFC East. With two exceptions, the Jets, Bills and Dolphins have been competing for no better than second place since the turn of the century. This season — if there is one — will provide each team with a golden opportunity to capture a division crown.
As always, quarterback play will have a disproportionate influence as to which club rises to the occasion. The question, then, for Jets Nation is whether Sam Darnold can be the cream of this sorry crop.
Darnold, who turns 23 on Friday, is still the youngest of the division's four projected Week 1 starting QBs (most experts believe Miami rookie Tua Tagovailoa, nine months younger than Darnold, won't start right away over aging Ryan Fitzpatrick). However, it can't be overstated that this has to be a leap year for the USC product.
In his two seasons, Darnold has shown equal flashes of brilliance and ignorance. Only two QBs have thrown more interceptions than Darnold's 28. Still, you can see the potential when he makes "off-schedule plays" with his arm and feet. The feeling around One Jets Drive is that if they can just surround Darnold with capable talent, including a coach, they have their franchise quarterback.
Unfortunately, that remains to be seen for this season as well. The offensive line, a disaster in 2019, has been almost entirely refurbished, but the coronavirus pandemic could pose challenges if it cuts into the new group's time to build chemistry. The outside receivers can best be labeled as unproven, though that deficiency is less concerning since Darnold has productive outlets at tight end (Chris Herndon and Ryan Griffin), out of the backfield (Le'Veon Bell and Frank Gore), and in the slot (Jamison Crowder).
Will that, and the continuity benefits from being in his second season in head coach Adam Gase's system, be enough to elevate Darnold to the head of the AFC East class?
It should, because, again, the competition isn't exactly elite. Unless the Patriots break down and sign former Carolina quarterback Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, who has all of four career NFL attempts under his belt (one of which was intercepted and taken back to the house by Jets safety Jamal Adams), is currently their number one. Coach Bill Belichick might be able to mix-and-match his way to another winning season, but it won't be by riding Stidham's relatively meek arm.
While we don't know what Tagovailoa is, we do know where we are on the clockwork-like Fitzpatrick Cycle. He's coming off a solid season and will be making $8 million in 2020. That means he's due for a down year in Miami before getting cut by next offseason.
That leaves Buffalo's Josh Allen, who was chosen four picks after third-overall selection Darnold in the 2018 NFL Draft. By virtue of playing on a far superior team, Allen is assumed to be in the lead at this juncture.
That would be a false assumption. As I review it, the only thing Allen does better than Darnold is run.
Statistically, they were remarkably close last season: Allen was less turnover prone (nine interceptions in 15 games plus a series in the finale versus the Jets to Darnold's 13 in 13 games) and had a tick higher QB rating (85.3 to 84.3). Darnold held the edge, though, in yards per attempt (6.9 to 6.7) and completion percentage (61.9% to 58.8%). Neither had much success throwing the deep ball—Darnold, however, had a QB rating of 75.9 on passes over 20 yards downfield while Allen, despite a more hyped arm, logged in at 64.4, per ProFootballFocus.com.
The most predictive measure of future success, according to PFF, is accuracy from a clean pocket. In that regard, Darnold is head and shoulders better—Darnold's 72.2% completion percentage when kept clean ranked 11th among 30 NFL QBs with at least 300 dropbacks while Allen posted the third-worst percentage at 65.8%. Overall, 26% of Allen's passes last season were deemed uncatchable by PFF, the worst rate in the league. Adding star receiver Stefon Diggs will be less impactful than many predict if Allen can't step up his accuracy.
Darnold's second-half numbers last season project a rosier picture. Though many will attribute it to weaker competition, Darnold still faced the fourth-highest number of pressures in that stretch where he received PFF's eighth-highest passing grade of the 32 QBs with at least 150 dropbacks. Allen ranked 23rd over his last eight games.
Darnold now has to put it together for a full 16 games. He's missed three contests in each of his two seasons—a foot injury in 2018 and his epic bout with mononucleosis last season. Darnold also played the last nine games last season with a sprained left thumb that required surgery in January.
First and foremost, the Jets have to keep Darnold upright. When he has time, he has proven he can deliver accurate balls. Only five of his 13 interceptions last season occurred from a clean pocket, per PFF. Twenty-two others had as many or more, including Allen and Brady.
The rest is up to Darnold. This season, he must eliminate the costly mistakes and rise above his less-than-stellar division rivals. I'd bet he will.
For a FAN's perspective of the Nets, Devils and Jets, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1.
