I've dusted off the crystal ball. I have consulted with various soothsayers. Spirits have been communed with. I have read the writings of Nostradamus. It is time for my New York Knicks predictions for the 2019-2020 season.
This can't go wrong. Right?
1) RJ Barrett Wins Rookie Of The Year
Given my Barrett skepticism, I'm sure fans are floored by this. I would not have made this prediction if Zion Williamson was healthy, by the way. Barrett has one huge thing working to his advantage this season: playing time. David Fizdale (inexplicably) played him nearly forty minutes a game IN THE PRESEASON! The regular season should be no different.
With the Knicks' struggles at point guard, he could be given the opportunity to be the starting unit's point forward and have the ball in his hand a lot. I still don't think he will be an efficient scorer, but he should fill the box score with points, rebounds and assists. I would put him at 15 points, seven rebounds and four assists per game.
Despite lacking explosiveness, Barrett has been able to effectively use his strength and guile to navigate the floor and finish at the rim. We'll see if that can continue in the regular season. He has cleaned up a few of his big issues from college: Tunnel vision, movement off the ball and defense.
He has not forced shots like he did at Duke. His defense looks improved and should be above average if he is allowed to guard bigger wings instead of smaller shooting guards. He has been moving off the ball and cutting to the hoop.
2) Julius Randle Will Make The All-Star Team
I considered backing off of this because of the amount of usage Barrett and Marcus Morris were getting with the starting lineup in the regular season, but what the heck? Randle is going to be a numbers machine. He could get up to 23 or 24 points and 10 rebounds per game. If he embraces his passing skills and his teammate's shooting cooperates, he could approach four or five assists per game too.
Would the NBA reward a player on a bad team? Yes. It is the Eastern Conference, where there aren't as many talented players. Randle has been in the league for a while and he has gradually built himself up to a player that is getting more recognition. He will also be the number one scoring option on his team.
If the Knicks win more games than people expect, he will lock this up. Despite his gaudy numbers, there are real questions about whether people believe he helps his team win games. This is a chance for him to change that perception by being better at the little things, like defense.
3) The Knicks Will Be Out Of The Playoff Race By January
I started off positive, Knicks fans, but the truth of the matter is that the Knicks are not very good and their schedule in November and December is brutal. From November 20th to December 15th they play the following teams in order: at Philly, vs Spurs, vs Nets, at Toronto, vs Sixers, vs Celtics, at Milwaukee, vs Nuggets, vs Pacers, at Portland, at Golden State, at Sacramento and at Denver. It will be a massacre.
Every single one of those teams made the playoffs last season, except the Kings, who would have made the playoffs if they were in the Eastern Conference. It is a brutal stretch that a young Knicks teams will find difficult to navigate. Fizdale will have to keep the team together during this stretch and maintain some measure of stability and order.
4) Marcus Morris (and maybe someone else) Will Be Traded By The Trade Deadline
This might be wishful thinking. I get the feeling that the Knicks' front office will hesitate trading away the veterans they signed this summer if they think they make the Knicks a better team during the second half of the season. I believe in Morris' case that Kevin Knox's progress will push them to make the move.
Knox has shown improvement this offseason, specifically in his ability to get to the rim and finish. Morris plays the same position he does, and his presence will block Knox's chance to play more minutes. If Knox plays well the first few months of the season it could green-light the Knicks to move on from Morris.
There's a slight chance the Knicks could turn Morris into a late first-round pick if they move him to an elite team that needs wing help and doesn't mind moving a pick between 25 and 30. They might have to take a longer-term salary back or include another player to get a first. Otherwise, they might have to accept multiple twos. With Morris on a one year deal, anything they can get in return would help long term.
5) The Rankings
The Knicks should be a better defensive team than offensive team this year if Fizdale plays the right players together. If they want to crack the 30 win mark, their defense needs to creep into the top two-thirds of the league. Their offense will have to better then 25th.
Until I see Fizdale build lineups where defense is a priority, I don't think I'll see it. I think they will rank somewhere between 21st and 23rd in defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) and between 24th and 26th in offensive rating.
The Record: 28-54. This is two wins above ESPN's projection (which is largely reliant on their RPM metric) and way above 538's projection of 21 wins, which is based on their RAPTOR player ratings. The teams with a worse record than the Knicks will be: Phoenix Suns, Cleveland Cavaliers, Charlotte Hornets and possibly the Washington Wizards.
Quick Hits
Eastern Conference Standings:
Milwaukee Bucks
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors
Boston Celtics
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
Brooklyn Nets
Indiana Pacers
First team out: Chicago Bulls
Western Conference Standings:
Los Angeles Clippers
Denver Nuggets
Houston Rockets
Utah Jazz
Los Angeles Lakers
Portland Trailblazers
Golden State Warriors
Dallas Mavericks
First Team Out: San Antonio Spurs, New Orleans Pelicans (not if Zion is healthy)
Conference Finals: Clippers vs Lakers, Bucks vs Sixers
NBA Finals: Bucks and Clippers
NBA Champion: Clippers
* Kristaps Porzingis will come out of the gates ON FIRE, but go through his typical late December/January swoon. He won't play more than 60 games.
* Injuries will derail a dominant Lakers regular season but in the postseason they will be extremely dangerous.
* No superstar will be traded in-season.
* The Sixers will be the best team in the NBA for the first 45 minutes of every game but their lack of go-to perimeter players in the final minutes will cost them in the playoffs.
