With the remainder of the NBA season still in limbo, it's fun to speculate what the Knicks might do in the coming offseason under the leadership of Leon Rose, Brock Aller and Scott Perry. With Rose's roots as a a NBA super-agent and the history of the Knicks under James Dolan, some suspect he will try to go star-hunting sooner rather than later.
The 2020 NBA free agent class is barren of stars. The Knicks could have more than enough cap space to sign anyone they want but, with apologies to Gordon Hayward, DeMar DeRozan and Andre Drummond (all with player options), there won't be anyone available on the free agent market that is a true star that can transform a franchise.
If the Knicks want to find that player this offseason they will have to do so via trade. Unless an unexpected player requests a trade, which in the NBA is not impossible, there is only one true star could potentially appear on the trade market: Chris Paul.
Paul is still an upper-echelon NBA point guard. His arrival would immediately vault the Knicks into playoff contention in the Eastern Conference. He has name recognition, plays one of the two most important positions in the NBA, and still somewhat resembles the player he was at the peak of his career. What's not to love?
Plenty. Chris Paul still has two years left on a monstrous four-year contract worth approximately $160 million that the Rockets gave him two offseasons ago. He will earn $41 million next season and another $44 million in 2021-2022 if he picks up his player option, which is expected. He just turned 35 years old, well past the age at which most NBA guards begin to break down or see a huge drop-off in effectiveness. He maxed out at 61 games played in the three years prior to the 2019-20 season. At some point, the quality of his play is going to take a steep decline.
Despite the quality of the player, his contract makes him an unattractive. There's a reason the Rockets had to include two first-round picks and two pick swaps with Paul in their trade with the Thunder to acquire Russell Westbrook. Paul's bad relationship with James Harden hurt the Rockets' leverage in those trade negotiations, as did the fact that there were few other teams with the realistic assets needed to put together a trade that worked.
There's no reason for the Knicks to give up anything of significant value in a trade for Chris Paul. Doing so would be a terrible mistake given his age and his contract. There's an argument the Knicks should take him as a pure salary dump, but there's another fair one that the Knicks should force the Thunder to attach assets to move him.
Sam Presti is one of the best general managers in the league when it comes to asset management, but the Thunder might be in as poor of a negotiating position as the Rockets were last offseason. With COVID-19 wreaking havoc on the NBA's finances, including the potential cancellation of the 2020 postseason, the league's salary cap and luxury cap could drop precipitously.
The Thunder are a small market team that have always resisted paying the luxury tax, so Presti could be forced by ownership to move salary for financial reasons. The Knicks could be one of the only teams in the league with the cap space and financial willingness to absorb an onerous contract like Paul's without forcing the Thunder to take salary in return. With Brock Aller onboard as the Knicks Vice President of Basketball Strategy, and formerly one of the best capologists in the NBA, he will be well-positioned to help Rose impose that financial leverage on the Thunder.
Assuming the Knicks can acquire Paul while giving up minimal assets, such as Kevin Knox or one of the Mavericks' or Clippers' late first-round picks, would it still be in the best interest of the franchise? It might not be.
The Knicks only goal right now should be to position themselves in the best possible way to find the next star that will be the centerpiece of the franchise. It is the only path to long term sustained success. They still need their next Patrick Ewing. Finding that player while maintaining assets to build around him is all that matters. Adding good support players and building a culture is important, but whatever needs to be done to best position the franchise to find their own top-ten NBA player through the draft, free agency, or a trade needs to be the top priority.
If it were 2010, or even 2013, Chris Paul could have been that player, but at age 35 he does not have enough gas in the tank to power the franchise for more than a year or two. Then what? The Knicks would be right back where they started. The question that needs to be asked is how would Paul hinder or help the Knicks in finding their next young star?
Adding Paul would make it much less likely that the Knicks will draft their next star. He would probably vault them into 40-win territory and take them out of the lottery. While it is possible to find a Kawhi Leonard-type prospect in the teen draft picks, it is very unlikely. With potentially stacked drafts coming in 2021 and 2022, including the possibility of the double-draft if the NBA returns to allowing players to enter the draft right out of high school, the Knicks would be missing out on potentially acquiring the type of young cornerstone they need.
On the surface, it is logical to think that Paul would help the Knicks attract top free agents. The Knicks would be a better and more attractive team. Paul is a name player that others would want to play with, unless his reputation of a taskmaster that alienated James Harden scares players away. But it is fair to ask whether a young star would consider his age and wonder if a short-term proposition of teaming with him would be worth committing to the Knicks.
Even if Paul does prove to be an attraction to another star, his $44 million salary in the summer of 2021 could potentially cut so far into the Knicks cap space that it inhibits their ability to take advantage of a strong free agent class. Unless the cap drops dramatically or the Knicks decide to retain Julius Randle for the third season of his contract (which would make no sense), the Knicks would be able to sign one star to add to Paul but not a second. After Paul comes off the books, they could theoretically add another star the next summer or trade for one.
In the final analysis, Paul would make the Knicks better and make them more attractive to free agents or veterans demanding a trade. But it would also virtually eliminate the chance the team could draft a cornerstone player. The Knicks have been burned too many times depending on free agency and trades to get back to relevance. The draft has its own risks, such as the re-balanced lottery odds, but finding a star that way and acquiring him on a cheap rookie contract has a lot of advantages.
The potential benefits of Paul helping attract a fellow veteran are real, but they do not outweigh the issues with his contract, and the harm to the Knicks positioning in the NBA Draft Lottery. In the end, he doesn't give the Knicks a better chance of finding long-termed sustained excellence that provides a true chance at a title one day. They should stay away, unless the Thunder pay a significant price for the Knicks to take him.
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