Yankees fans were properly euphoric when the team signed Gerrit Cole. He's the ace and anchor the team so breathlessly needed in their rotation, and is fresh off an absurd season where he went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 326 strikeouts in 212 1/3 innings pitched. Those are PlayStation stats, and the only reason Cole didn't win the 2019 AL Cy Young is because writers gave it to his teammate, Justin Verlander, in a true toss-up.
The Yankees committed nine years and $324 million to Cole, who likely won't be worth the $36 million he's due in 2025 at age 35. There's a chance he can opt out in 2024 and the Yanks could keep him by guaranteeing a tenth year at $36 million, and while that will surely happen if Cole is still elite, do you really think he will fan 300 batters when he's 34 or 35 or 36?
Of course not, and likely, neither do the Yankees. But as with most mega-deals, productivity on the back end is sacrificed to squeeze all the current talent out of the player. This is no different with Cole and the Yanks, who not only signed a great pitcher but plucked him from their tormentors, the Houston Astros, but both know that baseball history is festooned with long-term deals between near-30 players and clubs that know they will overpay for the second half of the contract. Pay a proper wage for his glory years, and overpay for his golden years – just look at anyone from A-Rod to Albert Pujols.
What the Yankees didn't take into account (and how could they have?) is the effect the COVID-19 pandemic would have on 2020, in their case the truncation of the season from 162 games to 60 – and how their investment would be fruitless at the front end, too.
Cole turns 30 in two months, and the season hasn't even started. Surely, even as late as March when Spring Training was ongoing, the Yankees envisioned that Cole would have double-digit wins and be smoking hot at the All-Star break – last July 6, one year ago to the day this is written, Cole pitched seven shutout innings to beat the Angels, raising his record to 9-5, and he would go 11-0 the rest of the way.
But there's never been an MLB season like this, a cauldron of variables and concerns and a pandemic that could swallow star players for a few weeks. Luis Severino is gone for the year, James Paxton is a question mark after back surgery, and Masahiro Tanaka is okay, but still a worry after being drilled in the head with a line drive and hitting the ground as though he'd been punched by Thanos. That's three-fifths of what should have been one of the best rotations in baseball, so the weight of this season is on Cole more than it should be.
Also, in a 162-game season, you're looking at an ace like Cole to at least make his "scheduled" 32-33 starts, if not a couple more here or there; with only 60 in the hopper, quick math says pencil in all five spots for 12 starts, and even adding "a couple here or there" in a 66-day sprint is, what, 14 tops? It often takes teams and players a month or two to find their form and took Cole until July to truly fins his superhero form last year, but the 2020 season will be over after two months, and even without the frigid weather that lingers over the nation in April, this year's conditions are certainly more bizarre, if not much worse.
Pitchers, like position players, love and live on routine. From warm-ups to workouts to starts, pitchers have carved out every hour of their lives during the season to keep that pitching motion proper, and to keep the dust of doubt from their nostrils.
So what will make Yankees fans feel they got the best of Cole, and what will make the Yankees feel as if they didn't waste a year of his prime? If he goes 9-2 with a mid-2.00s ERA and the team wins the World Series, will that justify the following eight years the way perhaps CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira justified theirs in 2009?
Or, what if the Yanks get upended during the playoffs or don't reach them? Will they have "wasted" Cole's last year in his twenties? We know that when it comes to pitchers, their thirties can be a crapshoot, so will it be a case of lament?
Randy Johnson was a freak, winning four-straight Cy Young awards between age 35 and 38, and Verlander has pitched great past his expiration date. But, Pedro Martinez's last transcendent season came at age 30, Greg Maddux's last truly epic season came at age 31, And Clayton Kershaw, despite a fine season in 2019, saw his age-31 campaign record his highest ERA since his rookie season (11 years ago), highest WHIP since 2010, and most homers per nine innings of his career.
Just the fact that we're using first-ballot Hall of Fame talents as reference speaks to Cole's talent. He's earned the right prove he's at least the best pitcher in the American League (no one is better than Jacob deGrom right now). He can't be blamed for the shortened season, or the results, as long as he pitches to the back of his baseball card in pro-rated form.
But Cole will be judged, often and harshly. Though he's just one man, he was bought and brought here as a pitching messiah, and while he certainly knows how to pitch under pressure, there's no place quite like the Big Apple, with ravenous beat reporters circling you after every start. He whipped the Bronx Bombers in last year's ALCS on his way to the World Series. Now he's here to get them to the World Series. And even in severe circumstances, there's no way this season is a success in some minds if he doesn't.
Follow Jason Keidel on Twitter: @JasonKeidel
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