Only italics would make this caveat any clearer: The Yankees are stacked, sizzling and deserve to be the talk and chalk of baseball. There's no reason to think they won't win at least 95 games, the AL East and make an earnest charge toward their 28th World Series title.
But just as it feels like the Yankees have already played two seasons -- one up to April 20, when they were 9-9, and the other in which they've been 19-3 since -- the interminable baseball season has a way of teasing, taunting and taxing even the most solid clubs. Aaron Boone recently mused over the "adversity" the Yankees have hurdled this young season, to the delight of WFAN's Boomer and Gio, who had much fun with Boone's assertions. It's true, the Yankees don't face adversity the way most mortals or baseball clubs do. But just for the fun of it, let's try to find something wrong in the Bronx.
The lineup is loaded. Aaron Judge is only getting better. As is Gary Sanchez. And Giancarlo Stanton hasn't even gotten hot yet. The Yankees have perhaps the best bullpen in the sport, and maybe the best farm system. So if the Bombers have a fault, a fissure that could be stretched into a hole so wide that their season could fall through it, where would it be?
It has to be the rotation, which has hardly cratered, but we haven't even reached June.
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As a team, the Yanks have a 3.66 ERA, tenth in Major League Baseball. They're fourth in opponents' batting average (.225), fourth in strikeouts (418), fifth in strikeouts per walk (3.32), 10th in WHIP (1.19) and second in strikeouts per nine innings (10.28). Sounds like a team that wins 70 percent of its games, which is what the Bombers (28-12) are doing.
But if you take a wider lens to the team, those stats -- particularly the epic strikeout numbers -- largely belong to the bullpen. Arolids Chapman (17.50), Chasen Shreve (12.91), Chad Green (12.68), Adam Warren (11.88), David Robertson (11.17) and Dellin Betances (16.50) are averaging well over nine strikeouts per nine innings.
Looking at the rotation, you find Luis Severino is the only true horse and ace on the staff. No one doubts his stuff, talent or temerity. But do you feel that cozy about the rest of the rotation?
CC Sabathia has posted sublime stats. Despite getting rocked in his last start, he has been a marvel during his late-30s renaissance. But Sabathia turns 38 in July, downright ancient, even by baseball's generous standards. Of all the Yankees starters with at least seven starts, Sabathia has thrown the fewest innings (36 1/3), even fewer than Sonny Gray, who is the eyesore of the rotation. Gray has never truly shipped his talents across the country, from Oakland to the Bronx. His 2-3 record and 46 hits allowed in 38 innings just aren't good enough to keep him through the season. Neither is his team-worst 6.39 ERA.
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Masahiro Tanaka, forever pitching on that tender elbow, has a tidy 4-2 record but an ugly 4.66 ERA and certainly isn't pitching up to the $22.14 million he makes per season. Then we have Jordan Montgomery, the only other Yankees pitcher with at least six starts. He's serviceable, with a 2-0 record and 3.62 ERA. But he has limited experience and has been on the disabled list the past two weeks with an elbow issue of his own. Montgomery's replacement, Domingo German, has been stellar in one start and brutal in another so far.
Is this the kind of rotation you'd love in the playoffs? Against Boston? Or Houston? Or even Cleveland? The three starters with the American League's lowest ERA -- Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton -- all pitch for the Astros, with Dallas Keuchel (3.10) ranked 12th. The Indians also have three starters -- Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, and Trevor Bauer -- in the AL's top 10 in ERA. (Severino is the only Yankee with at least 40 innings pitched who is in the top 30 in ERA.)
Then we have Boston, with Chris Sale (2.17), Rick Porcello (3.28) and David Price (4.89), who aren't quite as formidable a trio, but are a combined 11-5 and more stout than the Yankees' top three starters. Out of all the aforementioned rotations, only Justin Verlander is older than 34. (He's 35.)
The good news is the Yankees have so much talent they double as diamond camouflage for their rotation. They're simply too good to fail over the next four months. But what about that precious fifth month, known as October? Can they get six strong innings from enough pitchers to win four games a series? Or are they just good enough to get where they got last year, within one game of the World Series? That was more than enough in 2017, but won't feel nearly as good in 2018. Follow Jason on Twitter at @JasonKeidel
