If you need more proof that parity is the NFL's domain, consider that all four teams getting points covered the spread during last year's wild-card weekend. Indeed, the underdog covered the number in 10 of 11 playoff games last season. This year's playoff foursome features the same kind of high-wire competition we love about the NFL playoffs, meaning we can expect more road teams feeling quite at home.
Indianapolis Colts (10-6) @ Houston Texans (11-5)
Saturday, Jan 5, 4:35 p.m. ET
Houston -1.5
Of all four games this weekend, this is the only contest between teams from the same division. The Colts and Texans split their two games in 2018, with each club winning on the road by three points.
The Colts started the season 1-5 before sprinting to a 9-1 finish, entering the playoffs as the hottest team in the league. Folks rightly point to QB Andrew Luck as the captain of the good ship Colts, but the defense has been sneaky potent, as well. Over the second half of the season, the Colts' defense has been among the best in the NFL, charged by all-world and First-Team All-Pro rookie LB Darius Leonard, who led the league in tackles.
MORE: Jets' Roberts Voted 1st-Team All-Pro
The Texans know something about streaks, too. After an 0-3 start, the Texans became the first team to follow three losses with nine straight wins. Oddly enough, the Texans started their streak with a win over the Colts and ended the run with a loss to the Colts. While Luck is the neck-bearded savior of Indianapolis, the Texans are led by dynamic QB Deshaun Watson, who needed a few weeks to fully heal from knee surgery before morphing into the force who dazzled the NFL in his rookie season.
There's a reason this game is a toss-up. If it comes down to the quarterbacks, Luck has the edge in experience and more weapons with WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Eric Ebron and the underrated RB Marlon Mack. Expect a third, three-point spread.
Colts, 27-24
Seattle Seahawks (10-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
Jan 5, 8:15 p.m. ET
Cowboys -2
Two teams with the same record and the same blueprint to get there. Dallas and Seattle are old-school, smash-mouth football teams, relying on running the ball to grind their foes into exhaustion by the fourth quarter.
While Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott has been the most renowned runner in this game, if not the entire league, it's actually the Seahawks, running the rock by committee, who led the NFL in rushing attempts, rushing yards and yards per rush. Seattle RB Chris Carson may not have Elliott's cachet, but he has quietly fueled the sport's best rushing attack.
While Seattle has the more diverse offense, few doubt that Dallas has the better defense. The Cowboys' D boasts the best linebacker tandem in the league - rookie Leighon Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith, just named Pro Football Focus' Breakout Player of the Year - as well as the ferocious pass rusher (DeMarcus Lawrence) and a shut-down cornerback (Byron Jones).
Still, if you have the better head coach (Pete Carroll) and QB (Russell Wilson), chances are you will win the football game, especially a playoff game.
Seahawks, 24-21
MORE: Ex-Jet Mawae Among Hall Of Fame Finalists Again
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Sunday, Jan 6, 1:05 p.m. ET
Ravens -2.5
Two teams who got here in wildly different ways. The Chargers lean on the ageless arm of QB Philip Rivers, while the Ravens finished the season 6-1 behind 21-year-old neophyte Lamar Jackson. The former Heisman winner replaced an injured Joe Flacco and never looked back. For now, at least, teams don't know how to combat Jackson's rushing prowess in a league built by pocket passers.
These clubs did play each other, at Los Angeles, in Week 16. The Ravens stunned the crowd by whipping the hometown Chargers, 22-10, largely by running the ball down their collective throats. Combined with Rivers' worst game of the year, if not his career, Baltimore left Los Angeles with a newfound mojo.
Baltimore needed help from the soap operatic Steelers just to get here, while some argue that the Chargers have the best roster in the sport. Los Angeles is loaded at RB, WR and have two of the best pass rushers (Bosa, Engram) on the planet. The only reason this game is being played in Baltimore is because of the quirky edge given to division winners, even if they don't have the better record.
Since 1990, rookie QBs are 1-5 in the playoffs against quarterbacks with at least ten years of experience. The only win was by the Ravens during Flacco's maiden season. But don't expect any carryover. This game will end with the mark moving to 1-6, as Jackson's faulty passing will hurt the Ravens at some point in the second half.
Chargers, 21-16
Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) @ Chicago Bears (12-4)
Jan 6, 4:40 p.m. ET
Bears -6
This is the only one of the four playoff games with a hefty favorite. The Bears earned it, shocking the NFL with second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky flashing his underrated athleticism, handing the ball to Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen and relying on the best defense in the NFL, led by pass-rushing monster LB Khalil Mack and rookie wonder LB Roquan Smith.
MORE: Jets Can Do Better Than McCarthy
Not that we should underestimate the Eagles, who just happened to win the last Super Bowl. Left for dead after ten games with a 4-6 record, with an injured Carson Wentz, backup QB Nick Foles waved his magic wand yet again, leading a late-season 5-1 charge, nudging Philly into the playoffs by winning their last game while the Vikings lost theirs. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson is the reigning Super Bowl champ, but Bears coach Matt Nagy is calling the kind of inspired plays that led Pederson to last year's Lombardi Trophy.
But the Bears are hot, hostile and playing at home, with a defense that ranked third in yards allowed and first against the run, allowing just 80.0 rushing yards per game. Chicago also led the league in scoring defense, allowing a paltry 17.7 points per contest. Between the travel and frigid wind of Soldier Field, the Eagles just don't have enough talent or momentum to turn their late-season magic into another enchanted playoff run.
Bears, 23-16
