The Knicks moved on from another head coach early in his tenure and the possibility of new leadership at the top of the organization is looming. It is a good time to take stock of where the Knicks are as a franchise to best forge a path forward.
Despite the doom and gloom and the "LOLZ KNICKS" stories hitting the internet left and right, the Knicks are not in their darkest days as a franchise. While they hold the dubious honor of having the worst record in basketball, they have six first-round picks and four second-round picks in the next four NBA drafts. They also have several lottery picks on their roster who are 21 years of age or younger.
While those facts separate the Knicks from past eras of more glaring mismanagement, it isn't a reason to celebrate either. Any team with the Knicks' record the past few seasons that doesn't have their own picks would be examples of gross mismanagement of the highest order. The bar for praise needs to be higher. The additional picks from Dallas in the 2021 and 2023 drafts are helpful, but neither of those are likely to be inside the top 20 or even top 25 barring a Luka Doncic injury.
The Knicks have a good salary cap situation moving forward. The only players with contracts past this season are Julius Randle and players on their rookie contracts. Randle comes off after next season. The Knicks have ample future salary cap and expiring contracts to be creative with trades and other transactions if they have the front office willing to make those moves.
This is where the good news largely ends. The Knicks young players that displayed potential heading into the season have not improved. Most of them have regressed or stagnated. While many are still 21-years-old or younger with good odds of improving, it is essential that fans and the Knicks realistically assess their likely outcomes as players.
The Knicks don't have anyone that has a realistic chance of being the best player on a good team. No one on this roster is likely to be a consistent All-NBA player. They might not have anyone that realistically projects as the second-best player on a good team either.
Kevin Knox looks no different than he did as a rookie, when he was one of the worst players in the league. His inefficient scoring doesn't come close to hiding his terrible passing, defense and rebounding. If he was on a half-way decent team he wouldn't be playing.
Mitchell Robinson has a path to be an elite NBA rim protector, but the lack of improvements in fundamental defense to stay out of foul trouble and be more disciplined is disconcerting. His offensive game hasn't expanded either.
The chances either Damyean Dotson or Allonzo Trier are more than end of the bench players are slim. They will not move the needle long term in any meaningful way.
Frank Ntilikina has shown he can help a good team win with his defense, and his shooting has shown incremental improvement. He has also shown he is nowhere near ready to be a lead guard to run an efficient offense. His likely end-game is as a defensive specialist that can be a tertiary ball-handler that hits an occasional shot. There's a path for him to be a winning glue player on a better team.
Many Knicks fans have hung their hopes on RJ Barrett, but the flaws in his game pointed out during the draft process have proved prescient. He isn't athletic enough to finish at the rim in the half-court, and he is a very poor perimeter shooter. It is impossible to be close to an efficient offensive player with those problems. Unless Barrett improves exponentially as a shooter (his athleticism improving is not likely), he will probably never be more than a good third option. His improved defense and decision making make those chances better.
Dennis Smith Jr does not look like a rotational NBA player at this point in his career. He is poor in nearly every aspect of the game, with only his raw athleticism giving any type of hope that he can eventually turn a corner.
In other words, the Knicks are very far away. Once Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving shunned the Knicks this summer, it was clear the earliest that the Knicks might compete is the 2021-2022 season, if their young players improved and they landed free agents in the summer of 2021. It's still possible, but the chances of both of those things happening are slim.
The Knicks are very far away from competing. Very far. A savior isn't showing up. They are probably going to win fewer than 20 games for a second straight year. They need to understand this is going to be a long-term slog with more hard times ahead, and they need to operate with that knowledge.
If teams want to dump contracts and pay draft picks to the Knicks for expiring contracts, the Knicks need to do it. If the contracts bleed past the summer of 2021, they need to do it. They should still be in asset acquisition mode by nearly any means necessary. They chose not to use their cap space to acquire future picks this past offseason to their detriment, but they can rectify that with prudent moves now. Everyone needs to be available for the right price.
If Steve Mills, endlessly trying to prolong his employment, refuses to make those moves then he needs to be fired immediately. If Scott Perry is willing to make those moves, he should get the interim job. If he isn't, just let Allan Houston do it. This is a long-term project, and while the Knicks don't have to go all-in on a Sixers like "process," they need to understand the principles behind it.
The Knicks need to find a transformational player, which is the hardest thing to do in the NBA. The Knicks have never been able to draw one in free agency, making their best path the draft. Any team's best shot of finding that player is with a top pick, which the Knicks will maximize their chances of getting, despite their best efforts. Still, there are never guarantees.
With the new lottery odds making it more difficult to land a top pick, and the general low-success percentage in the NBA draft, the Knicks also need to maximize their opportunities to draft good players by acquiring as many picks as possible. It gives them more chances to find difference-making players and provides more flexibility in trades to acquire one.
Drafting is hard in the NBA, which is why the Knicks need to maximize the return on their selections. Luck is certainly part of it, but when you look back and see the players selected around Kevin Knox it is fairly obvious the Knicks probably didn't make the right selections. They have done better with later-round picks, but difference makers come in the top ten if teams pick the right players. They need a general manager that can do that more times than not if the franchise is going to turn around.
It is not going to be easy. It is going to take time. But the Knicks can maximize their chance at getting where they need to go with the right moves. It starts with a more forward thinking and creative team President to prioritize the future, even at the cost of the next few seasons. Whether James Dolan has the stomach for such an approach is unknown, but he needs to accept this if he ever wants to be the steward over a winning basketball team at Madison Square Garden.
You can follow John on Twitter (@Schmeelk) for everything about the Knicks, the Giants and the world of sports. You can also subscribe to his Knicks podcast, the Bank Shot, on most popular podcast platforms.
