All year, Knicks fans have been anticipating this offseason with realistic dreams of landing one or more of the top players in basketball to immediately turn around the franchise. The Knicks put themselves in that position when they created two max salary slots in the Kristaps Porzingis trade, and as late as a few weeks ago the popular NBA rumor was that both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were headed to New York in a package deal July 1.
Then everything changed. When Kevin Durant tore his Achilles, the idea of putting together a three-headed super team in Madison Square Garden next season all but evaporated. The only top player left as a free agent target that could immediately turn everything around is Kawhi Leonard, but he is far more likely to stay in Toronto or head to the west coast and join the Los Angeles Clippers.
If Leonard declines to come, which is likely, all of the Knicks' silver bullets are gone. There are no more easy answers and now Scott Perry will have to make some very tough decisions that will go a long way to determining the immediate future of the franchise. The good news for the Knicks is that they have a lot of young players, future draft picks, and salary cap flexibility to forge different paths.
In the NBA, every contending team needs a star player. It is the hardest thing to find in the NBA and is essential to high level success. The most important question the Knicks need to ask themselves is how they can best utilize their resources to acquire a superstar to lead the franchise. It doesn't have to be this offseason, but there needs to be a plan.
The organization hopes RJ Barrett can develop into that player, but at just 19-years-old with plenty of development left to do, such hopes are merely an optimistic projection that might not come to pass for years, if at all. There are no other free agents besides Leonard, Kyrie Irving included, that are good enough to be the best player on a championship team in 2019.
The 2020 free agency class is barren, assuming Anthony Davis remains in Los Angeles beyond this season. The best unrestricted free agents in the 2020 class are Draymond Green, Danilo Gallinari, and Kyle Lowry. There are player options for guys like Marc Gasol, DeMar DeRozan, Otto Porter, Gordon Hayward, Mike Conley and Andre Drummond. The player option group would be unrestricted in 2021 if they pick up their player options.
In other words, it will be another two full seasons before the Knicks can realistically use their free agent money for a true superstar. The 2021 class has bigger names with players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Victor Oladipo and Bradley Beal as unrestricted free agents. De'Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen, Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball are restricted free agents, and veterans like LeBron James, Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Paul George and Jrue Holiday are on player options.
The NBA has proven too unpredictable to just wait until 2021 and hope for the best. There's no way to predict what might happen between now and then. Just look at how much changed in the NBA landscape between February and June of this season. There's a chance that none of those players will ever get to free agency or even consider the Knicks that summer if they do. Waiting and hoping is not a plan.
The question the Knicks face is what should they do in the meantime. What's the best way to utilize their available cap space with the goal of acquiring a star before 2021? Despite the risks attached to it, and there are plenty, it's to try to sign Kevin Durant. There are real reasons to doubt how Durant will return from his ruptured Achilles tendon. It is an injury that has ended careers, from older players like Kobe Bryant and Patrick Ewing, to younger players like Elton Brand. No player that has returned from such an injury has been the same from an athletic standpoint. Everyone loses something, but the more important question is whether they can compensate for it.
There are some exceptions, such as Dominique Wilkins, who tore his Achilles in 1992 at the age of 32, and averaged more points when he returned the following year. He lost a lot of athleticism but altered his game by shooting more jump shots. Rudy Gay is a recent success story returning from a ruptured Achilles, but there are far more failures than successes.
Durant's size and high-level shooting have the chance to immunize him from some of the ill-effects of losing athleticism. He can transition to more of a power forward role that operates in the mid-post and isn't as reliant as going off the dribble from behind the three-point line. But there is no telling if the ruptured Achilles would destroy his versatile defensive ability, hurt his penchant for drawing fouls or lead to other chronic injuries.
Durant would be returning to the NBA at 32 years of age with three years and $126 million left on his contract, after taking a redshirt year with the Knicks in 2019-2020 at a $38 million price tag. His first year back in 2020-2021 might end up being a recovery year, with a lot of missed games in the regular season due to load management.
Despite the risk, there is no other clear way the Knicks can use their space in the next two seasons to acquire a star or make it more likely to get a star in 2021. Without Durant, the Knicks would have to wait until 2021 to compete for a high-level free agent anyway, and his presence could help entice one to join. If the Knicks continue to struggle the next two seasons and their young players do not develop, they might not be seen as an attractive landing spot where a good player would want to go to win.
If the Knicks didn't sign Durant, who would be a better use of that money this offseason or next? They can only take on so many bad contracts for picks, with the chances of getting to $72 million being slim to none. They could sign veterans to one or two year deals to help the young players develop and win some more games, but how does that contribute to eventually getting a star player and winning a title down the road? There's a chance Durant is already that guy in 2021, and the Knicks would already have him on the roster.
The bottom line is simple: Spending $164 million over four years to place a bet on Kevin Durant returning close to his pre-injury form gives a greater potential return to the Knicks than any other use of that money over the next two seasons. Would the Knicks rather have Durant on a two-year contract for his age-33 and -34 seasons in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 for $80+ million, two years off the Achilles injury, or not have anything on the books that summer at all? There is risk involved and it is a high variance bet, but the potential reward is so great it makes the wager worth making. There's probably a better chance Durant returns to form for that season than there is for TWO stars wanting to come to New York in free agency that summer.
The Knicks would still have more than $30 million in cap space to play with over two seasons to take on players with bad contracts in exchange for draft picks or other assets. They could also sign moveable veterans to short term contracts to help the young players develop and be more prepared to help Durant in 2020 when he returns to the court for a likely less than 100% recovery season.
They could draft three more players with potential lottery picks in 2020 and 2021 (they also own the Mavs' 2021 pick), adding to their roster. The current youngsters on the roster, like Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett and Kevin Knox, would have two more years to develop and would be far more likely to be contributing players on a good team. The asset chest could be flusher if another star becomes disgruntled and demands a trade. Durant's presence, if healthy, could make it more likely that a disgruntled star or one of the stars from the 2021 class would want to come to New York.
The risk that Durant is a shell of himself in 2021 and a toxic asset is a real one, but how likely? Even if Durant is 80-90% of his current self he would still be a great player, even if not a top five (or ten?) player in the league. If he completely breaks down, the Knicks would have to wait out his contract and play the young guys, which is what they could possibly be stuck doing if they chose to make no other major additions for the following two years anyway.
There are a couple things that would make me hesitate offering Durant that type of contract. First is if he required the Knicks bring in another max player now, or even one of the older players next summer, to play with him right away. Durant plus Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Tobias Harris or Kyle Lowy or DeMar DeRozan is not going to get the Knicks where they want to go. Irving and Leonard would be exceptions here. Durant is going to have to repay the Knicks' faith in his recovery with a level of patience until the summer of 2021 when he is fully healthy and the free agent class is decent. If he isn't willing, then the move might not make sense for the Knicks.
The other idea that was floated out there by Brian Windhorst was a delayed sign and trade, allowing Durant to sign a five-year deal with the Warriors before being traded to the Knicks. This would be done as a favor to Durant, who would get a fifth year on his deal coming off an Achilles injury, and could help the Warriors, who might be able to turn Durant into some assets coming in return for him. The trick is that the trade wouldn't be able to be executed until December 15th due to CBA rules to limit sign and trades.
This could work for the Knicks as long as they wouldn't have to send any meaningful assets to the Warriors, just whatever filler players they sign to one-year deals this offseason. It would be an unwieldy situation for both teams, especially the Knicks, who would have to up-end their roster midseason. I don't think this is very realistic, but the rumor is out there so it was worth addressing.
I didn't come to this opinion of still trying to sign Durant lightly. I like to put myself in the shoes of the Knicks General Manager when I make these types of decisions. Immediately after the Durant injury I thought it would be a terrible mistake to offer him a max contract. All I could see were visions of Antonio McDyess, Amar'e Stoudemire and Allan Houston, whose Knicks careers were derailed by injuries. Those scars run deep.
Since, after evaluating the Knicks other options in spending that same money, I've reluctantly changed my mind. It is still a risk, but one I now think is worth taking. The other options simply couldn't move the meter in any significant way towards a future championship, like the Durant move would. It could blow up in their face, but the results of the alternative moves could end with an identical result.
There are no longer any easy answers for the Knicks this offseason. Durant is still the best of all the realistic moves, all of which have risks. It's the best one of no great options, which is all the Knicks have left this offseason.
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