Free agency finally hits Sunday at 6 p.m. Just a month ago, there were straight-forward options for the Knicks that were no-brainer decisions. Those choices have all but evaporated. Only tough ones remain. Other than my top-ranked option below, there aren't any other moves that do not carry significant risk for the organization. There are clear and reasonable pros and cons to nearly all of the Knicks choices. Reasonable and smart basketball people can make a legitimate argument for both sides of most options.
The Knicks should have these goals in mind when they make any decisions this summer:
1. Make big picture progress towards eventually obtaining stars/get on the path to winning a title.
2. Maintain future flexibility by avoiding bad long term deals that will hinder roster construction
3. Obtain future draft capital/young controllable players
4. Win more games now with the goal of assisting the development of current young players
Personally, I'm not sure I've ever felt this torn over what the Knicks should do in a free agency period. I change my mind a lot, sometimes daily. There is risk to everything. Scott Perry and Steve Mills are going to have to think outside the box, be creative, and make some tough decisions.
Here's how I rank the Knicks options:
1. Sign Kawhi Leonard
Pro: He might be the best player in basketball.
Con: None
Then what? In order to convince to Leonard to come, you ask him what other star he wants to play with and then you do exactly what he says.
Conclusion: Do this as quickly as possible.
Mood: Ecstatic. Sign the contract before someone changes their mind.
Odds: 5%
2. Sign Kevin Durant
For more on signing Durant, read my full evaluation here.
Pro: When Durant returns from his Achilles injury, he could return (close) to form and be the type of star that the Knicks have been looking for since Patrick Ewing left. There is no better way (aside from signing Leonard) to use cap space in the next two seasons than to make a gamble that he is a top 20 player in two seasons.
Con: He might never heal or recover to be close to his former self, and clog up the Knicks cap space with a $40+ million per year contract. It would destroy much of the Knicks' cap flexibility for four seasons with very little return.
Then what? Ideally, let the young players develop for a year, then add a free agent to Durant next summer along with another high lottery pick. If Durant insists on another star coming on board now, the team would probably have to grit their teeth and do it, but the decision becomes much more difficult.
Conclusion: Do it but be nervous that Durant's career could take an Amar'e Stoudemire trajectory.
Mood: Content, but nervous that his Achilles will make everything go terribly wrong because that's what happens to the Knicks.
Odds: 30%
3. Sign Emerging Young Players like D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle To Join The Young Core
For more on Russell and Randle read here.
Pro: Russell is just 23, and Randle only 24, and both can score at a high level with room to improve their overall games. They can grow with the Knicks' young players and help their development by winning more games now. The preference between the two could be determined by cost and contract length. Russell will be more costly and could net a max deal at $27 million. If both improve they could play into and surpass the value of their contracts, making them tradeable commodities.
Con: Russell is lacking athletically, a poor defender and an inefficient scorer. Randle is poor defensively, and his scoring methods might not lend to winning. With being poor defenders and volume scorers, how do they fit with the current roster? Both might also require long-term contracts at huge dollar amounts, hurting future flexibility if they do not improve. Russell could block potential progress from Dennis Smith Jr. Same for Randle and Kevin Knox.
Then what? You can use the remaining cap space to add short term deals that maintain some level of flexibility.
Conclusion: Definitely sign one, because spending $60-70 million on one-year deals does not bring lasting value and will lead to diminishing returns. Both? Only if the deals are two years or shorter.
Mood: Excited team will be better that they add good youngsters, but nervous they committed long term money to two flawed players.
Odds: The Knicks seemed to indicate they will avoid long contracts: Russell at 15%, Randle at 40%.
4. Use Cap Space To Take On Bad Contracts for Draft Picks
Pro: There won't be enough good players to fill the Knicks space on short-term deals, so why not get something for your trouble? It loads the war chest for a future potential trade for a disgruntled star.
Con: The Knicks have indicated they will not take on long term toxic assets (or players that they don't deem useful), which leaves players (probably) on one-year deals that teams want to jettison. It will limit the value the Knicks can get and their options in trades. If these players are unhappy, they can mess up team chemistry. It could lead to the team being very bad yet again.
Then What? If they prove trouble, just cut the acquired veterans and enjoy the draft picks.
Conclusion: Even netting one more 1st rounder this offseason would be a huge win.
Mood: Let's do it. Not much downside here unless they pick up long term deals, which is unlikely.
Odds: 50% (assuming they are short term deals)
5. Sign Players To Only Year Deals To Maintain Tax Flexibility
Pro: You have tradeable contracts and maintain cap flexibility in future offseasons to continue to be in the free agent market.
Con: Unless Anthony Davis decides to leave LA, the 2020 free agents class is poor. Players on one-year contracts prevent you from really building or selling anything to stars since the group won't stay together. If a player outplays a one year deal, you have to pay them. You have to balance their playing time with the youth the team wants to develop.
Then what? There really isn't one. This is just a stop-gap, which is the problem. You are sitting, waiting, and hoping a disgruntled star (or two) forces a trade or wants to come in free agency.
Conclusion: You have to use the cap space for something, right?
Mood: Meh. The team will be better but how does this help long term, especially when there likely won't be any decent free agents available until 2021?
Odds: 75%
6. I Will Lose My Mind If They Do Any Of These Things And You Should, Too
1. Pay max money to second- and third-tier free agents condemning team to no man's land mediocrity.
2. Sign a center with significant resources. Mitchell Robinson is your best young player. PLAY HIM.
3. Re-sign Emmanuel Mudiay. God help us all.
Brace yourselves, everyone. The Knicks are heading for free agency with few great options in front of them. Steve Mills and Scott Perry can either really help the future or set the franchise. Keep your fingers crossed.
You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports. You can listen to the most recent episode of The Bank Shot, my Knicks podcast. I break down the Knicks free agent options with Ian Begley and get a D'Angelo Russell breakdown from Steve Lichtenstein. Listen here and subscribe via Apple Podcasts here.
