The one huge question hanging over the head of the NBA was answered this past weekend when Anthony Davis told the New Orleans Pelicans he would not sign a super-max free agent extension with them this summer. He subsequently requested a trade, and now teams are trying to put together their best offer for one of the top players in basketball. There have been multiple reports that the Knicks will be very aggressive in pursuing Davis, which should surprise no one.
Before breaking down what the Knicks could offer and whether the Pelicans would be interested, it's important to understand exactly what Davis is. Right now, he is a top-five NBA player at just 25 years old. In two years, with LeBron James, James Harden and Kevin Durant a bit older, Anthony Davis (or Giannis Antetokounmpo) could be considered the best player in the NBA.
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Davis is averaging 29.3 points per game (third straight year scoring 28-plus points per game) and shooting 50.8 percent on field goals, 32.5 percent on 3-pointers and 81.2 percent on free throws. He is grabbing 14.4 rebounds per game, along with 4.4 assists, 2.6 blocks and 1.7 steals. He is a dominant offensive player who can score in a variety of ways and a defensive stalwart who can switch screens and protect the rim at power forward or center. He leads the NBA in player efficiency rating and is third in real plus-minus. He is a true superstar.
There are two complications. The first is his health. Davis has only played 70 or more games twice in his seven-year career, his last two seasons when he played 75 in each. He has already missed nine games this season, and a finger injury will keep him out for more. Most teams would probably look past this with Davis also never playing fewer than 60 games in a season.
The second complication is Davis' contract situation. He will be able to sign a super-max extension beginning this summer, which would be a five-year contract worth somewhere around $240 million. He will be a free agent in the summer of 2020 if he does not sign an extension before then and declines his player option.
There have been no reports as to exactly what the Pelicans might want in a trade, but it will likely be some combination of young, established stars under controllable contracts, draft picks and expiring deals to dump some of their less-than-desirable contracts such as Solomon Hill's. The Pelicans are under no obligation to move Davis before the Feb. 7 trade deadline, and it would be beneficial to them to wait until the summer to get who might be their top suitor involved: the Boston Celtics.
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The Celtics cannot trade for Davis while Kyrie Irving is still on the roster on his current contract due to NBA salary rules. Once Irving is on a new deal this summer, the rule no longer applies, and the Celtics would be free to offer up their slew of desirable assets such as Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart and/or draft picks (they have potentially as many as four this year).
Unless Davis rules out Boston as a potential destination (Chris Haynes from Yahoo Sports has reported it is not a preferred destination) or the Celtics are willing to move Kyrie Irving (highly unlikely), any team would have to completely blow away the Pelicans with an offer to convince them to make a trade now rather than waiting for the summer and seeing exactly what the Celtics might have to offer. In other words, the Pelicans are going to (rightfully) ask for everything.
The two obvious teams besides Boston that ESPN's Brian Windhorst has reported would be on Davis' list of preferred destinations (and would sign an extension, which would be a condition of any trade) are the Knicks and the Lakers. In order to get the Pelicans to agree to a trade now the Lakers would probably have to offer Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans might also ask for a future pick or for the Lakers to take on Hill's onerous contract.
Could the Knicks beat that trade or offer something that would convince the Pelicans not to wait for the summer to trade with Boston? Probably not. The discussion would have to start with their unprotected 2019 first-round pick and Kristaps Porzingis. To make the cap work, the Knicks would have to add another player in there. I don't think this would make the Pelicans pull the trigger for a simple reason: Both assets the Knicks are offering have huge question marks associated with them.
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Porzingis is still recovering from a torn ACL, and there's no guarantee when he'll be ready to play and how good he'll be when he returns. His injury history is also a legitimate concern for any team that controls his rights. Porzingis could also short-circuit any potential trade involving him by telling whatever team that trades for him that he would not sign his rookie extension with it. This is unlikely given the lucrative contract he would be passing up coming off a serious injury.
The Knicks' draft pick would also be a complete unknown. Even if New York finishes with the worst record in the league, they have a 48 percent chance of picking fifth. The Pelicans would be wise to wait until the lottery drawing is conducted so they know exactly where the Knicks will be picking in the draft. If the Knicks do make a trade now, Davis being on the roster would most certainly improve the team enough to move them out of the bottom three in the lottery standings, reducing the value of the pick.
By waiting, the Pelicans might also have a better clue as to Porzingis' health. Porzingis, if healthy, would probably be the best individual player New Orleans could get for Davis (spare perhaps Jayson Tatum?). In other words, even if trading with the Knicks becomes a preference for whatever reason, the Pelicans would be much better off waiting until the summer, or at least the draft, to make a deal. The only team that might be able to coax them into making a move in the next couple of weeks is the Lakers, and only if they completely blow the Pelicans away.
Should the Knicks trade for Davis? If they get the first pick in the draft (Zion Williamson) and Porzingis looks good in the final month of the year, dealing both for him would be painful, and my guess is that the organization would pass on such a deal. If they are picking anywhere from second to fifth, it becomes a lot more enticing for the Knicks, but much less so for the Pelicans.
The Knicks do have to be careful not to run into the same problem they did with the Carmelo Anthony trade -- liquidating so many assets that they can't build around Davis properly. It's a fine line, but not engaging to at least try to land a player as good as Davis, who is a much better player than Anthony was when the Knicks traded for him, would be malpractice by the Knicks' front office. The chance of anything happening for the Knicks is a long shot, especially now, but once the summer arrives and the Knicks know where they are picking, anything is possible.
You can follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk or subscribe to his podcast "The Bank Shot" on WFAN.com, RADIO.COM, iTunes, Google Play and Stitcher.
