Don't look at the individual waves. Instead, look at the current.
There is no better advice for Knicks fans as they watch their team beat the second-place Heat one night and then get blown out 121-98 at home by the Suns less than a week later.
For any NBA team, there will be shifts throughout the season. Some nights a team plays well, and on others they don't. Some nights an opponent shows up and plays particularly well, and on others they don't show up at all. With a team as bad as the Knicks, the latter happens more than fans are willing to admit. A lot of times upset wins have as much to do with how locked in the opponent is as how well the Knicks play.
The worst thing anyone can do, especially the Knicks front office, is to draw reactive conclusions from single, isolated events. Even short streaks, like the three-game winning streak from Dec. 26 to Jan. 1, need to be viewed with skepticism. Why? Despite a few waves, the current is still flowing toward a bad season.
Even with the team playing better fundamentally under interim head coach Mike Miller, they are still a bad basketball team. Under former coach David Fizdale, the team was 4-18 and on pace for 15 wins. Under Miller, the team is 7-13 and on pace for 29. They are a normal run-of-the-mill bad team rather than a dumpster on fire getting carried down a flooded street.
The same thinking should be applied to the young players on the Knicks. Any player in the league, even bad ones, can string a good game or two or three together, but it's doing it consistently that makes a player good. RJ Barrett's improved free-throw shooting, for example, has been going on long enough to make a reasonable person believe he is closer to a 70% shooter from the line than a 55% shooter. His recent success from the field, however, should be viewed with skepticism until it is sustained.
Flashes from Kevin Knox, Frank Ntilikina and Mitchell Robinson should be looked at the same way. Obviously, it is better to have good flashes than none at all, but sustaining that level of play over a long period of time is what's important. One good game, or even a couple from Knox, does not erase two months of futility.
Ntilikina and Robinson, meanwhile, need to bottle the good versions of themselves and show up every night. It has been too few and far between with both falling into their individual bad habits far too often (Robinson fouling foolishly, and Ntilikina shooting poorly and not driving aggressively enough). Ntilikina has started to sustain a more aggressive style for a couple weeks, but Robinson fixed some of his issues for a couple weeks before the last West Coast trip only to fall back into them.
For the team, owner James Dolan can't be fooled by the short-term. He needs to see how far away his team still is and make the appropriate decisions. The current is still flowing in the wrong direction, and more than likely, as long as Steve Mills is running his team's basketball operations it isn't going to change.
SCHMEELK'S SNIPPETS
• A perfect example of the Knicks not losing sight of what they truly are is important in their decision of whether or not to trade Marcus Morris. The report from the New York Post's Marc Berman on Wednesday indicating the team was leaning toward keeping the veteran small forward to make him a long-term part of the future should scare Knicks fans. Morris will be 31 next summer, is a bad fit with Julius Randle and would not be a value signing at $15 million-plus per season. If the Knicks can get a first-round pick for him, they must pull the trigger.
• The Knicks' no-show at home against the Suns should have embarrassed the organization. The veterans the front office is reported to be so keen on keeping around showed little intensity. Elfrid Payton continues to struggle, including a lack of dedication on defense. Randle's defensive effort was similarly poor.
• To add injury to insult, Barrett sprained his ankle, and based on how far it turned, it could be a multiple-week injury. The result will probably be some more minutes for Damyean Dotson, Reggie Bullock and Wayne Ellington. Knox might get a bit more time, too. The Knicks should also consider giving Ignas Brazdeikis some playing time to see if he can bring his G League success to the big club.
• The Knicks were wise to waive Ivan Rabb and give his two-way contract to Kenny Wooten. Wooten is as raw as they come from a skills standpoint, but he has freakish athleticism. He bounces like he has go-go gadget springs in his shoes and has flashed a number of spectacular blocked shots playing for Westchester. He flashed similar skills in the Summer League. Wooten is a perfect player to try to develop into a real NBA player.
Follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk. Check out his podcast, "The Bank Shot" on WFAN.com, RADIO.COM and other popular podcast platforms.
