The entire NBA has their eyes on Anthony Davis before Thursday's trade deadline at 3 p.m. He is the big fish that can change the entire landscape of the league heading into the playoffs and the summer free agent market. It remains unlikely that the Pelicans will trade Davis now because they cannot involve the Celtics, who have the combination of young players (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier) and draft capital (up to four first-round picks this year) that the Pelicans crave.
Even though Davis has said he will not sign with the Celtics long term, they believe he may change his mind once he is exposed to their organization and makes a title run with them next season. The Thunder took a similar chance with Paul George and it worked. The Raptors did the same with Kawhi Leonard, as did the Mavericks with Kristaps Porzingis. Whether Kyrie Irving remains in Boston could impact their efforts.
According to recent reports, the Lakers are trying to put an offer together to motivate the Pelicans to move Davis now, rather than waiting for the summer. They've put Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma on the table along with two future first-round draft picks and the willingness to give the Pelicans salary cap relief by taking on Solomon Hill. It's a strong offer but probably wouldn't beat anything the Celtics could put together with Jayson Tatum.
Like the Lakers, the Knicks are one of the teams Davis reported to be willing to sign a long term extension with. Could the Knicks make an offer that not only tops what the Lakers have on the table, but also convinces the Pelicans to trade him before the summer gets here? If they can, should they?
(Things get a lot more complicated for a potential offseason trade depending on the timing of the deal, the players involved, and other salary cap implications so I will only focus on a potential trade before the deadline.)
The Knicks have superior draft assets to the Lakers and have plenty of expiring contracts to absorb Solomon Hill's contract. In order to match some of the young players the Lakers could offer, the Knicks would have to include some combination of Dennis Smith Jr., Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson or Frank Ntilikina. The Pelicans would likely prefer Smith and Knox.
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What would set the Knicks offer apart is their 2019 unprotected first round pick. Even with the uncertainty surrounding where the pick would land, it would be a superior asset to anything the Lakers could put into a deal. Even with an at best 14 percent chance at Zion Williamson, the mere chance at a player of that caliber dwarfs the upside of any of the young players the Lakers have on their roster.
Math, however, does not work in the Knicks favor. If the Knicks did obtain Davis, they would likely win a few additional games, which would devalue the pick. There is a big difference in value between the 2nd and 8th overall picks in the draft. It would make a lot more sense for the Pelicans, if they favored the Knicks offer, to wait until the offseason to do a deal so they know where the Knicks will be selecting.
If by some chance the Pelicans decide to pursue a trade like this with the Knicks right now, it isn't a no-brainer for the Knicks. By trading for Davis now, they would lose the chance of signing two max free agents this offseason. They could still add one and have some money left over but they would be short of a second max, especially with the required addition of Solomon Hill.
The trade would also leave their roster bare. Without a first round in 2019 (and likely the Mavericks picks in 2021 and 2023 gone too), the Knicks would be left with Davis, their second max free agent, Ntilikina, Robinson, Allonzo Trier, Damyean Dotson and whoever else they can sign in free agency with their leftover money.
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Simply adding two max free agents to everything already in the Knicks treasure chest, including a shot at Zion Williamson, would probably yield a better group of players. Would the addition of Davis now, however, be the price to guarantee a player like Kevin Durant joins in the offseason? If Davis' addition ensures Durant's arrival, does losing all that talent make it worth it? Or do the Knicks know Durant is coming anyway? That's something only the Knicks would have a feel for.
Waiting for the summer makes a certain amount of sense for the Knicks, too, since they would know the true value of their draft pick. They could also be more flexible with their cap space. If they waited to trade for Davis until after they used their two max salary slots, for example, they could have Davis plus those two other max contracts.
If Davis' arrival doesn't move the needle when it comes to attracting other free agents, making a move for him now before knowing what the 2019 draft pick is going to be doesn't make a lot of sense. It would not only degrade the roster, but also reduce the salary cap space the team just traded their franchise player to acquire. It makes sense that if a trade like this is going to happen, it is going to happen in the summer when it is most beneficial to both franchises.
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