The Kristaps Porzingis trade has not changed the Knicks' timetable or general strategy for how they are going to rebuild their team. It has changed how they are going to go about it. They do not have to be a "free agency or bust" team if they don't want to be. They are actually better positioned to rebuild slowly around the draft if that's the direction they want to pursue or are forced to go in if they lose out on their top free agent targets.
Before the Porzingis trade, with nearly enough room for one maximum contract, the 2019 free agency class was always a big part of the Knicks plan to get back to relevance. Before, it was Kristaps Porzingis plus one max level free agent. Now, it is two max level free agents. The plan was always for two stars to be on the Knicks in 2019-2020, the only difference is that one of them is no longer going to be Kristaps Porzingis.
Much like before the trade, the 2019 NBA draft is critical. Defying the odds and landing the top pick and drafting Zion Williamson would be a difference making moment for the franchise. It could be how New York adds a third potential star to next year's team. It was the case before the trade and it is the case now. Even if they do not land the top pick, players like RJ Barrett, Ja Morant, Cam Reddish or Jarrett Culver would be integral parts moving forward.
Former first round picks Frank Ntilikina and Kevon Knox are still on the roster, as is undrafted rookie free agent Allonzo Trier and second round picks Mitchell Robinson and Damyean Dotson. They are as much a part of the future now as they were before the Porzingis trade. All five players could develop into important pieces on a winning team around star caliber players.
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In addition to those young players, the Knicks have added former top ten pick Dennis Smith Jr. and two additional first round picks (the first one unprotected and the second protected for the top ten) that will convey in either 2021 and 2023 or 2022 and 2024. They have more future assets now than they had before the Porzingis trade.
Trier and Dotson are under the Knicks' control through next season, while Ntilikina and Smith aren't going anywhere for at least two seasons. Knox and Mithchell Robinson have three years remaining on their contracts after this year. They have cost control over all of those players, thus making them legitimate developmental pieces.
Before the Porzingis trade, it was going to be important for the Knicks' front office to remain patient this summer. As damaging as missing out on a top free agent like Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leanord would have been, signing the wrong player to put next to Porzingis and occupy such a large portion of the team's salary cap would have been far worse.
It is no different now. With no player with bonafide superstar potential on the roster right now, if the Knicks miss out on Durant, Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler and even Klay Thompson or Kemba Walker this summer, they would be foolish to instead simply give out max contracts to the next best players on their list. Tobias Harris, Khris Middleton, Nikola Vucevic, D'Angelo Russell and even DeMarcus Cousins are very good players, but as the two best players on a team, there would be a fairly hard ceiling on the upward mobility of the franchise.
The club has to realize that once they make their draft pick this summer and use their cap space, it will be very difficult, near impossible, to add other star level pieces down the road. With the team improving they wouldn't pick high enough in the draft and they would lack future cap space to sign an impact player. A trade is possible with some of their young controllable players, but that is a swap, not an addition of talent. If the Knicks spend all their money this year it needs to put them over the top into a situation where their ceiling is an NBA championship, even if it is a couple years down the road.
Steve Mills and Scott Perry need to identify the players they think are truly game-changers and make sure they do not settle for players they do not consider on that level. If you want to win in the NBA you need the top players in the sport. There's a reason every NBA Champion in the past ten seasons has had one of the top players in the sport: Stephen Curry/Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kobe Bryant. The Spurs are the one near exception, but they had an emerging Kawhi Leonard along with Hall of Famers Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker under the best coach in the world: Gregg Popovich.
Even with the 2020 free agent class underwhelming, the Knicks would be far better off using all that space in more clever ways. They could absorb bad contracts to acquire extra assets in the form of young players or future first round picks to aid a long term rebuild. They could leave space open to remain flexible in trade situations if someone like Anthony Davis happens to become available again. With this strategy, developing the young players on the roster and drafting properly would be essential.
This rebuild strategy would be similar to what the Celtics did after their trade with the Nets (which went fairly quickly), and in a worst case scenario reflect the long term "process" the 76ers undertook in their rebuild. The key is to stack assets every season, pick as high in the draft as possible, and maintain cap flexibility to give the team as many chances to acquire a star as possible.
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Without Porzingis on the roster and his potential max contract hitting the books as early as next season, this becomes an easier path to navigate for a longer period of time. The Knicks have years before they would have to make a similar monetary commitment to anyone on their roster, which means they can easily keep their salary cap space wide open for at least two more summers.
The more deliberate plan would demand an extremely high level of patience we have never seen from a Knicks front office, especially trading a potential star (Porzingis) they already had on their roster. The fan base has gone so far as to expect them to land not one, but two superstars in the summer. There might even be opportunities to move some of their young players and draft assets for a veteran star. Expectations are high. Both Scott Perry and Steve Mills have said they will remain patient, but that is easier said than done.
This trade might make the quick fix more appealing and more plausible, but it doesn't mean it's the only way. The Knicks should opt to rebuild slowly if they lose out on the top level free agents available. They cannot control where the stars want to go in free agency. What they do if they do not land Zion Williamson, and the top tier free agents reject them, will decide the careers of Scott Perry and Steve Mills. It will also decide the future of the franchise. It's a realistic scenario fans don't want to think about, but a likely one the front office must be prepared for. It is one of the most important summers, if not the most important, in franchise history, and they have to get the decisions right.
You can follow John on Twitter @Schmeelk and listen to the latest episode of "The Bank Shot Podcast" with Robert Silverman talking about the Porzingis trade here. You can also subscribe to his podcast on iTunes here.
