The NBA, like nearly every other professional sports league, is cyclical. Styles of play change from decade to decade. When one style begins to dominate, teams adjust and then the league brainstorms until they figure out the next most efficient way to stop it.
For a team like the Knicks that is still multiple years away from competing for a championship, they have to anticipate where the league is heading next so they can get ahead of it and best prepare for whatever the NBA in the 2020's is going to look like.
Before trying to figure out where the league is heading, it's first important to note what isn't going to change. Barring a widening of the width of the basketball court and the lengthening of the three-point arc, the three-point shot is not going anywhere. It might continue to get more prevalent. Much like the home run in baseball, basic math dictates that being efficient shooting threes is the best way for a team to be a top offense.
The real question is how teams create those three-point shots. The basic answer is excellent ball movement, but that is far too broad of a strategy. Good passing will never go out of style, but not every team can execute at the level of the Spurs and the Warriors. One basic thing that every team can do to maximize those basics is by putting as many people on the floor that can handle the ball, pass and shoot. If the Knicks future features Kristaps Porzingis and Kevin Knox and the four and five, they are heading in the right direction.
In terms of a more micro analysis, Mike D'Antoni's arrival as head coach of the Phoenix Suns began a radical change in how pro teams played basketball. The 80's and early 90's were dominated by big men. The turn of the century turned to isolation wing basketball with players like Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter and even less talented ones like Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, Allan Houston and Latrell Sprewell going one-on-one from the wing.
As defensive schemes and rules changed, that method of playing was thrown into the waste basket of history and replaced by spreading the floor and running high screen-and-roll. If you had a point guard that could drive, pass, and shoot, and surrounded him with a good roll man and shooters, an offense could look unstoppable.
That style of play has held for the better part of a decade and then some. When NBA rules disallowed any contact from the big man showing on screens, and as referees overlooked more and more illegal screens by offenses, the pick and roll became unguardable by traditional defensive schemes. Once a guard got into the paint, help would come and an open three-pointer or dunk wouldn't be far behind. Only in recent years we have seen more and more teams begin to switch those plays, eliminating a lot of options for an opposing ball handler.
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A change in personnel has allowed this shift in strategy. There are more and more long wings and big athletic centers that can guard multiple positions and survive in switches against opposing playmaking guards. (see Clint Capela, Al Horford, etc.) Teams are far more willing to force a player to go one-on-one to score, even in obvious mismatches, than let them create open three-pointers or point blank attempts at the rim for teammates in running pick and roll.
This strategy was omnipresent in both the Eastern and Western Conference Finals, and then again in the NBA Finals themselves. The Cavs would continually hunt switches for LeBron James to get him favorable matchups against players like Stephen Curry or JaVale McGee. The Rockets did the same with James Harden and Chris Paul, setting screens for them until they got to go one-on-one with Curry or a slow Warriors big like David West. Likewise, the Warriors did the same for Curry and tried to get him one-on-one against players like James Harden, Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love.
So what does that mean for the Knicks? On defense, it means it is nearly impossible to hide a bad defender on the floor. Everyone needs to be able to guard because if they can't, the opposition will force switches again and again until they find the matchup they want. Imagine for a moment, Enes Kanter having to guard James Harden?
The Knicks have some pretty versatile long defenders with potential like Frank Ntilikina, Porzingis, Mitchell Robinson and even Kevin Knox. They are positioned fairly well to play the type of switching defense being played in the modern NBA. It also means lockdown perimeter defenders are slightly less valuable, since teams can get them off their top scorers by using simple screens to force switches.
Offensively, it looks like the league is going to shift back to the importance of having good isolation players that can create their own shot. Having an ultra-quick guard that can go around opposing bigs and get to the rim to create an easy shot for himself or an open three for a teammate is still the player that makes the league go round. The Knicks still need to find a guard that can create their own shot and that needs to be a huge focus of the team moving forward when they use their future cap space and make their draft picks.
The other option that not a lot of teams have explored yet is to take advantage of the mismatch on the screener that was created by the switch. If someone like Kevin Love switches onto Steph Curry for example, that also means someone like J.R. Smith, Jordan Clarkson or George Hill is now guarding the big man that set the initial screen.
The NBA is no longer filled with big men that can punish small guards in the post but if this constant switching continues that might start to change. The post up continues to be inefficient because of the contact allowed by small players against big players in the paint, and the lack of players that actually have refined post games. Tim Duncan was the last of a dying breed of players that could dominate the post and do enough other things to stay on the floor. Once dominant post up players create a veritable layup line in the paint, double teams will come, which will open up the three-point shot.
The best post players in today's game are Nikola Jokic, Marc Gasol, Jusuf Nurcic, and younger versions of Al Jefferson and Zach Randolph. There are no Hakeem Olajuwons, Patrick Ewings, David Robinsons or Shaquille O'Neals on that list. If Kristaps Porzingis can continue to bulk up, he can be a player that can punish guards in the post. Kevin Knox can be a guy that can do that too if he refines his post play as he gets older. If those two can become efficient post players, switching high screen and rolls against the Knicks will be very difficult.
The talent coming out of college also seems to be trending to the big man. Five of the top seven draft picks in 2018 are power forwards or centers. The 2017 class was point guard heavy but early returns on guys like Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, and Frank Ntilikina are not strong as ball dominant playmakers. Donovan Mitchell, and to a lesser extent Dennis Smith Jr. and De'Aaron Fox are more promising. Kris Dunn and Jamal Murray were the point guards taken in the top ten in 2016. D'Angelo Russell has not worked out from 2015. Other than Victor Oladipo, the 2014 class is not impressive either.
The current crop of the league's best ball dominant players: LeBron James, James Harden, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, John Wall, Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook are all in their prime years. Even a younger player like Kyrie Irving is 26 years old. What's the next generation? They might still come, but the chances of a big man resurgence is real.
The game will always change, and many times in ways that no one can predict. If the Knicks can stay ahead of these changes, it will make it much easier for them to win in the future. Will what I detailed above actually happen five years out? Maybe not, but the current players on the Knicks roster, spare the absence of a ball dominant playmaking guard, is actually diverse enough to give them a chance to be ready for the future.
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