With New Year's Day approaching, the Knicks are leaving Milwaukee and heading west for five games against the Jazz, Nuggets, Lakers, Trailblazers, and Warriors. It is a nightmare of a journey that the Knicks will be lucky to find a single win on before they return home. Their losing streak, currently at six, might be at 11 when they host the Pacers at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 11. The time has come to start counting ping pong balls.
The Knicks (9-27) are tied with the Cavaliers for the most losses in basketball, with 27. They have one more win than the Cavs (8-27), who have the worst record in basketball, and one more loss than the Bulls and Suns who sit at 9-26, with the third and fourth worst records in the league. By the time the Knicks return from the road trip, they might very well have the worst record in basketball.
Unfortunately for the Knicks, the NBA flattened out the lottery odd a bit this year, making it less advantageous to have the worst record in the league on Lottery Night. With the Knicks unlikely to eventually seed lower than sixth, here are the new odds courtesy of tankathon.com.
While the odds for getting a top-four pick doesn't really change from seeds 1-4 in the draft lottery, how far you can drop in the draft changes a lot. For example, if you have the league's worst record you can't pick lower than 5th, but if you finish fourth you have a 16.4% chance of picking seventh and a 2.2% chance of selecting 8th! The level of talent available with the fourth pick versus the seventh or eighth can be stark.
Even though the NCAA basketball conference schedules haven't started yet, the draft boards are starting to become clear. Duke forward Zion Williamson has emerged as the clear-cut best player in the draft alone at the top of the board. Teammate, wing scorer RJ Barrett sits alone at number two with a lot of distance between him and the players after him. Both those players would be considered top talents in nearly any draft class.
After those two top players there is a ton of uncertainty. Depending on the draft expert you read, the next group of players could go 10-12 deep without much to differentiate between them. There will be some good players in that group, but there are going to be busts too. It's just a matter finding the right player, which in any draft, is the hard part. There are no guarantees. (check out my new podcast with Jackson Hoy from the Stepien for more on the draft class – link here please)
With Kristaps Porzingis returning either at the end of the season, or early next year, this is likely the last chance the Knicks will have selecting this high in the draft. It's essential they get an impact player with an All-Star ceiling. They'll get that picking first or second but there is no way to know if they will picking later than that.
The Knicks are going to lose a lot of games this year, but they are going to need the ping pong balls on their side for the first time since Patrick Ewing was drafted, the last time the Knicks moved up in the draft lottery. They need better players, and even more so than free agency, this year's draft may be the best place to get them.
Schmeelk's Snippets
It was good to see Frank Ntilikina back in the rotation after not playing on Christmas. His stat line was modest, making two of five shots, but he was more aggressive going towards the basket. He found Enes Kanter with some nice passes rolling to the basket. His shot needs to start dropping more, which will probably help sustain a more aggressive mindset.
Luke Kornet's offensive line (23 points, 7-11 3PT) will get all the attention, but the defensive impact he and Courtney Lee had on FIzdale's new starting lineup replacing an ill Tim Hardaway Jr. and Enes Kanter was noticeable. Kornet protects the rim better and has enough quickness to get out on shooters more. Lee is a far more capable defender than Hardaway. The pain was felt on offense, with the Knicks failing to score 100 points and shooting 37.1% from the field.
Noah Vonleh was terrific guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo, making him work for every bucket. He also finished with 15 points and 13 rebounds, finishing with the only positive plus/minus on the team (+2) when he was on the floor. Vonleh continues to make the case for being a keeper.
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