With the semifinals in both the Eastern and Western Conferences finishing quickly, we've had a few days without playoff basketball. Fortunately, that ends Sunday afternoon when the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers begin their series. The main event, however, begins on Monday night. The Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets might as well be the NBA Finals, since both teams would be huge favorites against either the Celtics or Cavaliers. Let's take a look at the East first.
Cavaliers vs. Celtics
Home court advantage could be huge in this series, as the Celtics have been 7-0 at home and 1-4 on the road so far in the playoffs. Despite losing Gordon Hayward in the first game of the regular season and Kyrie Irving late in the season, the Celtics advanced because of fundamental defense, growth from their young players and excellent coaching from Brad Stevens (who should have gotten a lot more votes for Coach of the Year). Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart have played wonderfully with help from veterans like Al Horford and Marcus Morris.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, have a fairly simple strategy: Get the ball to LeBron James, spread the floor with shooters and let him go to work. They'll send screens for him at the top of the key to try to force mismatches from switches, and then give defenses a choice between sending help and leaving a three point shooter open, or hoping their defender can slow down James.
It was a simple strategy that Coach of the Year Dwane Casey — whom the Toronto Raptors fired Friday — could find no answer for. The Raptors were so ineffective that James not only dominated, but his teammates found open shots and scored all over the floor as well. I have to think that coach Stevens will come up with a better solution, especially given the way he guarded Ben Simmons.
This series will be the coaching genius of Stevens versus the basketball genius of LeBron. The Celtics play the better brand of team basketball, but James is a basketball demigod. I think Stevens figures out a way to limit James with his variety of multiple versatile defenders, or at least make him less efficient, and the Celtics beat the Cavaliers in seven games.
Warriors vs. Rockets
This (unofficially) is the NBA Finals. The winner of this series will win the NBA title. The Rockets won 65 games this year to win the top seed, with the Warriors winning only (insert sarcasm) 58 due to a number of injuries, including one to Stephen Curry at the end of the year. It's clear the Warriors have dialed up their intensity since the playoffs started, but they'll be up against a Rockets team that has been the best in the league all season long.
In some ways this is a similar matchup to the Celtics and Cavaliers. Even with their star power, the Warriors play team basketball and move the ball better than any team in the league. They have three of the best shooters in the game with Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant who are helped by mercurial playmaker Draymond Green. Andre Igoudala does all the dirty work. The Warriors bench is a little shorter than in past seasons, with Kevon Looney, Shaun Livingston, Quinn Cook and David West getting most of those minutes.
The Rockets, on the other hand, much like Cleveland, rely a lot more on the unbelievable one-on-one playmaking ability of James Harden, and to a lesser extent, Chris Paul. Mike D'Antoni will play three or four behind the three point line and let Harden or Paul run isolations or high screen and rolls until the cows come home. They spread the floor with shooters and make defenses choose to either guard one on one against elite scorers, or help and give up open three pointers.
What has made the difference between this D'Antoni coached team and others in the past are the number of good individual defenders that are on his roster next to Paul and Harden. Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker, Clint Capela, and Luc Mbah A Moute are all good versatile defenders that can defend one on one, switch screens and hit the open three. Paul is a fantastic defender as well, and Harden might be having the best defensive year of his career.
It will be fascinating to see how the Rockets and Warriors match up with one another defensively. Despite what most people think, Houston had the sixth best defensive efficiency rating in the league this year at 103.8. The Warriors were ninth in the league at 104.2. Golden State and Houston had nearly identical offensive ratings (Warriors at 112.3 and Rockets at 112.2), the two best in the league. These teams are juggernauts.
My early guess:
Warriors Offense Rockets Defender Rockets Offense Warriors Defense
Stephen Curry Chris Paul Chris Paul Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson Trevor Ariza James Harden Andre Igoudala
Andre Igoudala James Harden Trevor Ariza Stephen Curry
Kevin Durant PJ Tucker PJ Tucker Kevin Durant
Draymond Green Clint Capela Clint Capela Draymond Green
I would expect Mbah A Moute to get a lot of playing time off the bench against Kevin Durant as well. What I like about the Warriors options is that they can rotate a lot of different players onto Harden and Paul so there's always a fresh defender. I think both teams will be doing a lot of switching on defense because of their players' versatility.
This series should be a ton of fun and luckily no games will be starting at 9PM so everyone should be able to stay up late enough to watch. If you made me bet my house, I think I would go with Golden State because I've seen it before. HOWEVER, I think this Rockets team is special and I would love to see coach D'Antoni finally get to a NBA Finals. Let's have some fun! Rockets in seven.
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