Here we go again. The NBA Draft Lottery is tonight, and unfortunately for Knicks fans it will once again be the second most important basketball day of the year for them, behind only the draft itself. It's the fifth consecutive season that the Knicks failed to make the playoffs, and their future will once again be determined, in part, by fate.
No Knicks fan needs to be reminded how unkind ping pong balls have been to the Knicks in their recent history. The Knicks have not moved up in the NBA Draft lottery since 1985, the infamous year that many conspiracy theorists insist David Stern made sure the Knicks wound up with the top pick in the draft so they could draft Patrick Ewing. Whether it was thanks to a creased or frozen envelope or simply good fortune, the Knicks and their representative Dave Debusschere got to celebrate 33 years ago. Scott Perry hopes to be the man doing it tonight.
There has been no reason for Knicks fans to celebrate on lottery night since then. Last year, the Knicks should have picked 7th, but the Kings moving up from the 8th spot to the third spot and pushed them down to 8th. In 2015, the Knicks were slotted in the 2nd spot on lottery night but ended up selecting 4th. They were still fortunate enough to wind up with Kristaps Porzingis that year despite their bad fortune.
Far too often, the Knicks have found themselves in situations where they are only a pick or two away from a potential superstar. Selecting eighth in 2009 NBA Draft, the Knicks were just one pick away from drafting Stephen Curry. In 2008, the Knicks moved down one spot on lottery night and wound up with Danilo Gallinari two picks after Russell Westbrook was drafted, and one pick after Kevin Love.
Sometimes, of course, the Knicks are their own worst enemies. In 2015 they won several meaningless games in the final weeks that allowed the Timberwolves to get the top lottery odds and draft Karl Anthony-Towns. This season, they won two of their last four and five of their final 13 to finish alone in the 9th spot in the lottery odds, just one game behind Brooklyn (pick goes to Cleveland) and two games behind Sacramento and Chicago. In the end, however, it was all the winning the team did before Kristaps Porzingis got hurt that put them in the unfavorable position they're in tonight.
Chances of picking 9th: ~80.5%*
Chances of getting the top pick: 1.7%
Chances of getting a top three pick: 6.1%
Chances of picking lower than 9th: ~13.4%*
(Different sources have different numbers for these two totals by a few tenths of a percent – depending on how they round their numbers – I used the ones from tankathon.com)
The math, clearly, is not on the Knicks side. They will need some of the luck that has eluded them over the past 33 years to finally catch up with them. Moving from the 9th pick in the lottery into the top three can often be the difference between having a chance to draft a future superstar versus being hopeful to find a good NBA starter and maybe if they're really lucky a potential All-Star. The talent drops off quickly in the NBA Draft and this year is no exception.
If the Knicks can move up into the top three they'll have a chance to get their choice of Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley, Jaren Jackon, DeAndre Ayton, and Michael Porter. There's a good chance all those players will be gone when the Knicks select at nine when they'll have to choose between guys like Mikal Bridges, Wendell Carter, Collin Sexton, Zhaire Smith, and Miles Bridges. They are good prospects, no doubt, but have more questions or lower ceilings than the ones in the first group.
The Knicks articulated a sound strategy for rehabilitating the franchise and creating a sustained winner at the David Fizdale press conference last week. They are going to build slowly through the draft. Talking about it, of course, is the easy part. The hard part is executing it, which specifically means drafting the right players. It is a lot easier to draft the right player picking first, second or third than it is 9th or 10th.
That's what is at stake tonight. Can the Knicks accelerate their rebuild with a little help from lady luck? Or will they be given a far tougher task of finding a good player later in the lottery? It has been 33 years since the Knicks got some help on lottery night, when they selected a man that would wear #33 for a long time in orange and blue. Perhaps with Scott Perry sitting in Secaucus, lucky number 33 will do the Knicks a big, big favor that they desperately need.
You can follow me on Twitter at @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports.
