On Monday night, Trey Burke scored more points than any Knick has all season, putting up 42 points on 19-of-31 shooting to go along with 12 assists. It was an exclamation point on what has been 29 impressive games since he signed with the Knicks on Jan. 14.
Burke is an NBA player, and he will spend a lot of time in the league. But how good is he? What's his ceiling?
Let's take a look inside some of the numbers he has put up this year.
The first important thing to note is Burke's contract status. Despite the fact that most internet sources say Burke is a free agent this summer, the Knicks control his rights next season with a partially guaranteed contract, according to Knicks TV play-by-play announcer Mike Breen. In other words, Burke isn't going anywhere and will be on the roster next year at minimal cost.
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His raw numbers this season (12.2 points and four assists per game, 53 percent on field goals, 38 percent on 3-pointers) might not look impressive, but then you see those averages have come in just 19 minutes per contest. His per-36-minute numbers are All-Star caliber:
- 23.2 ppg
- 53 percent on field goals
- 38 percent on 3-pointers
- 7.6 apg
- 3.3 rpg
- 1.1 spg
- 26.6 usage percentage
It's a small sample size, so you have to wonder if those types of numbers are sustainable and whether Burke has simply been hot for a couple of months. The immediate red flag is his shooting on long 2-pointers. He has shot 52 percent on shots from 10 to 16 feet and a ridiculous 57 percent on shots between 16 feet and the 3-point line, according to Basketball-Reference.com. The latter number especially is likely to regress a bit.
Burke's shot profile isn't what you would normally consider efficient. According to NBA.com, a little less than half his attempts come from midrange (between the paint and the 3-point line), while a quarter of his shots originate from behind the 3-point line and another quarter come from the paint. He is only averaging 1.4 free-throw attempts per game, a number he will need to improve and get closer to the five per game he averaged at G-League Westchester. Burke's strong midrange shooting, however, might be able to sustain his style better than most, even if his shooting percentage dips a bit.
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The rest of the news is so far, so good with Burke's NBA numbers, almost matching what he did in Westchester. Here are is per 36-minute numbers there:
- 25.9 ppg
- 49 percent on field goals
- 42 percent on 3-pointers
- 5.2 apg
- 3.2 rpg
- 1.9 spg
- 30 usage percentage
It makes sense that Burke would shoot less in the NBA and pass a little more with a lower usage percentage. His NBA shooting percentage will likely drop a handful of points, but a point guard who shoots close to 40 percent from behind the arc and 45 to 47 percent from the field is still a useful player.
Burke has excelled in scoring in sets the NBA runs most often. As the pick-and-roll ball handler he averages 1.03 points per possession, ranking him in the 89th percentile in the league. When he is on the floor, the Knicks have an offensive rating of 111.5, which is the highest on the team. He is a good offensive player.
Defensively, the results have been more mixed. His defensive rating of 113.4 is better than only Luke Kornet, Emmanuel Mudiay and Isaiah Hicks. Those numbers are skewed, however, because Burke barely played with Kristaps Porzingis, the Knicks' best frontcourt defensive player. Guarding the pick-and-roll, he is in the 10th percentile in the league, allowing the ballhandler to score 1.03 points per game. Burke is undersized at 6-foot-1 and 191 pounds, which will limit his defensive upside, but you do see effort. He trails players on the screen-and-roll and tries to stick with them even if his physical traits limit his effectiveness.
So who is Trey Burke? I think we know he is an legitimate NBA talent. From what we have seen, he could be either a lower-end starter or one of the best point guards off the bench in the league. His defensive issues could limit him, and a declining midrange shooting percentage could hurt his efficiency a bit. But those are only smaller warts on what otherwise looks like a competent NBA point guard. He makes pretty good decisions (waving off his coach and a high screen-and-roll late in Monday's game not withstanding) and not only scores himself but gets his teammates involved as well.
It's important to remember Burke was a top-10 draft pick in 2013. Granted, it was one of the weaker draft classes in the last decade, but there was talent there. It looks like it took five years as a professional and for him to turn 25 to figure it out. From Burke's own admission, becoming a husband and a father has helped him mature, and he altered his game in his extensive G-League playing time to be a better pro. He deserves a lot of credit, as does the Knicks' player development team.
The Knicks have a keeper, whether as a starter or a 20-to-25-minute-per-game player off the bench. He will have another season to prove this year hasn't been a fluke. If he does, he'll have a chance to cash in with a nice contract in the summer of 2019.
So how good can Burke be? We know he is better than Mudiay and should start the rest of the year, but beyond that, no one is quite sure. But it bears watching and could be a lot of fun.
For everything Knicks, Giants, and the world of sports, follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk
