After Thursday's Board of Governor's vote, pending the resolution of health and safety issues, and approval of NBPA, the NBA season will be completed by 22 teams at the end of July with the playoffs to follow. The teams with the 8 worst records in the league, including the Knicks, will be staying home. Their seasons are over. What does that mean for the Knicks?
1. Lottery Position SecuredThe NBA Draft Lottery will take place on August 25th, with the NBA Draft being held on October 15th. Game seven of the NBA Finals, if necessary, would be on October 12th. The lottery teams will be seeded in the drawing based on their record from when the season was postponed on March 11th. Here are the Knicks' odds for the NBA Draft Lottery compared to the teams around them:
The Knicks have a 37.2% chance of moving up on lottery night. They have a roughly equal chance, about 9% of picking first, second, third or fourth. They only have a 8.6% chance of selecting sixth, but there's a 50.4% chance they pick seventh or eighth. There is only a 4.8% chance the Knicks select lower than 8th.
If the Knicks want a legitimate shot of drafting one of the two of the perimeter players with the highest upside in the draft, Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball, they would have to move into the top four picks on lottery night or trade up using future picks. The only way Ball lasts to pick six is if his father LaVar somehow poisons the water with the other teams in the draft.
If the Knicks select 6th, 7th or 8th they would be in a position where they would be hoping one of the two top international players in the draft, Deni Avdija or Killian Hayes, falls to them. At this early stage, it looks unlikely, and the team would most likely be choosing between players like Tyrese Haliburton, RJ Hampton, Cole Anthony, Devin Vassell and Isaac Okoro. A trade down, or up, in this scenario might be attractive.
2. The Coaching Search Can BeginThe Knicks can now begin their coaching search with earnest. According to various reports, Mike Woodson has been added to an interview list that already included Tom Thibodeau, Kenny Atkinson and Mike Miller. Jeff Van Gundy's name was mentioned earlier in the process, but there have been no recent reports that he will get an interview. Jerry Stackhouse, a strong young coach that was mentioned during the Knicks previous search when they hired David Fizdale, has also been whispered but there have been no reports linking the two.
Adrian Wojnarowski was only the most recent of many reliable reporters to name Tom Thibodeau the front runner in the early part of the process. I wrote extensively about the prospects of Thibodeau and Atkinson becoming the Knicks next head coach. Once a head coach is announced, there's a chance some kind of media event would take place, whether in person or virtual, where reporters would be able to ask Leon Rose questions for the first time since he was hired as the team's President. It might give some clue as to what sort of path, slow rebuild or quick fix, the Knicks might pursue in the coming months and years.
3. Free AgencyWhat the salary cap is going to look like remains a mystery, but free agency is scheduled to begin just three days after the NBA Draft on October 18th. I previously wrote about the potential of a shrinking cap could provide the team with a lot of different options in the summer.
The Knicks are likely only going to be one of a few teams with significant cap space to spend this offseason, and they will have to decide how much they are willing to spend this year, and how much they want to save for what is going to be a much more robust 2021 free agent class. Fred VanVleet and Cristian Wood are two young unrestricted free agents the Knicks could pursue. Brandon Ingram is a restricted free agent, and could be the best player on the market if league economics make New Orleans hesitant to match an offer.
4. Next SeasonTraining camps for next season are set to open on November 10th, just a few weeks after the draft with the season starting on December 1st. Such a short window may make it difficult for NBA teams that have a high roster turnover to find some level of continuity early in the season. The addition of a new coach, which is likely for the Knicks, will make things even more difficult. If the NBA plays into late July or early August next year, they could theoretically start the 2021-2022 season on time.
This timetable also means that the Knicks will have gone from March to December, nearly nine months, without playing a real basketball game. There are some reports that the NBA will have some kind of Fall League or training camp to allow teams like the Knicks to get some extra offseason work in, but there has been nothing made official on that front.
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