Schmeelk: Taking Stock Of Knicks Rebuild After Zach Lowe Rant

Earlier in the week, we heard from one of the best NBA analysts in the country, ESPN's Zach Lowe, about the New York Knicks. It wasn't pretty.

Here's just some of what Lowe said:

"They're really bad, and they had a bad summer, and there's no light at the end of the tunnel," Lowe said. "The tunnel has been barricaded on both sides. There's giant boulders barricaded. They're just bad. They're a bad team that's worse than they think they are.

"The Knicks just suck. Every year they suck. There's no hope for them to not suck. We thought there was hope for them to not suck. All of last year, the prospect of the Knicks not sucking was dangled before me like I was Tantalus in Greek mythology, and it didn't happen. Why would you (free agents) come?"

I'm not going to be able to do justice to @ZachLowe_NBA's feelings about the Knicks - you're just going to have to listen for yourself. ----‍♀️ pic.twitter.com/UlHEzIdNH8

The bad news is that is mostly true. There is some hyperbole in there, and some other statements that I would disagree with, but for the most part and from a broader perspective, Lowe is right.

The Knicks are bad. They won 17 games last year. They have been very bad for a long time. They have changed coaches, general managers and players, and nothing much seems to change, spare for a season here or there. The Knicks have been one of the worst franchises in all of sports since the turn of the century. The owner is still the same. For people on the outside to expect that to continue is natural.

It is also true the Knicks aren't in a terrible position for the future when you compare it to where the franchise has been in prior seasons. They aren't saddled by odious long-term contracts. They control all of their own first-round picks, and even have a couple of extra ones from the Kristaps Porzingis trade with the Mavericks. They have players with potential on the roster such as Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett, Dennis Smith Jr., Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina.

That's what some Knicks fans, many of whom have such traumatic forms of PTKD (post-traumatic Knicks disorder) don't seem to understand. The Knicks haven't signed anyone to terrible long-term contracts since Steve Mills signed Tim Hardaway Jr. two summers ago. They haven't traded any future first-round picks.

Given the state of the franchise, roster and timetable in the rebuild, doing either of those things would have been incredibly stupid. Front offices shouldn't be lauded simply for not doing the worst possible thing they could have done. That should be the minimal standard of competence, not worthy of praise and laurels.

The players the Knicks added in free agency this offseason are fine and won't hamstring the franchise, but other than possibly Julius Randle, who else is going to have a beneficial long-term impact on the team that eventually helps them become playoff contenders? The answer? No one. The group has to prove it on the floor that tangible progress has been made toward building a winning method at Madison Square Garden. Could it happen? Sure. Could the Knicks also win 25 games? Absolutely.

While the narrative they signed too many power forwards might be a bit stale and an overexaggeration, it doesn't mean the Knicks used their resources as best as they could this summer, either. If Knicks fans could go back in time to change history, would they really still sign Randle, Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson and Marcus Morris to a combined $58 million worth of contracts this offseason? There was a better way to utilize those resources.

This front office has reset the franchise. It traded the team's franchise player for a return that has yet to pay dividends. The Knicks are on the path that opens the possibility for long-term success, but they are not very far down that path. They do not have someone on the roster who is likely to become a true franchise player. Tearing down is far easier than building up, and that is yet to come. Yes, there are promising young players on the roster, but no one knows if Barrett, Knox, Ntilikina or Smith are ever going to be good NBA starters, let alone All-Stars. We have to wait and see.

The Knicks did add some pieces in the offseason that should make the team better in the short term, but how much better? They might win 30 games? This is an improvement but not a laudable accomplishment. The Knicks would still be near the top half of the lottery odds with that type of record. They would still be a bad team. To quote Lowe, by any reasonable standard for other NBA teams, they would still suck.

And while boulders might not be blocking the end of the tunnel, as Lowe describes, the light is very, very far away. The free agent class in 2021 is terrible, leaving 2022 as the next chance to add a difference-making player in free agency. Depending on players who won't be older than 23 over the next two years to improve enough to carry the team to the playoffs is a high-risk proposition, at best. Teams that young, let alone individual players, do not have a very good track record getting into the postseason.

Is there a chance that Smith, Knox, Ntilikina and/or Barrett break out? Sure. All of them? No way. Developing a team slowly through drafting and internal development is very hard. A lot of young players never work out, and many don't figure things out until after their rookie contracts are up. It's very, very hard to develop a team that way. Maybe it happens to the Knicks, but if their fans are being honest with themselves, the odds aren't good. If it does happen, it is likely years away.

That means there really isn't much more than a little hope for this team to do anything truly meaningful until the 2021-22 season. That's two full seasons away. Could the team take incremental steps until then and get to 35 wins, or maybe close to 40 in 2020-2021? Sure, but the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with the pleasure of getting waxed by the No. 1 seed is nothing to write letters home to mother about.

Of course, that's a high-end projection. There's a real chance the Knicks youngsters don't blossom over the next two years and remain in the 30-win range. There could be another new coach in the building if that happens. No one has any idea if David Fizdale is a long-term answer as head coach. We'll find out.

All that said, it also doesn't mean the front office has done a terrible job, either. Trading Porzingis could end up being a good move. The players they drafted might turn into All-Stars. We just don't know yet. Even though the odds are against the Knicks, it doesn't mean it isn't going to happen. They have put themselves in decent position and now they just have to draft and develop well the next two seasons.

The Knicks have done nothing to garner any trust or confidence from NBA fans. They have to earn that trust back. They have to prove that they have turned the page and are heading in the right direction. They have to prove that they are no longer a laughing stock. They can do that by going out and doing something they haven't done much of in the 21st century: win games.

Eventually, there has to be tangible results. The Knicks have to prove it. Their young players have to prove it. There are early positive signs, but that's all they are. They aren't even out of the beginning part of the rebuilding process yet. Until they do those things, they are going to be treated as a joke (just like the Kings were until last year), and understandably so. They need to dig themselves out of the reputation hole they have put themselves in, and it will take time and patience to do it. I think Knicks fans have the patience for it, but that is another thing we'll find out over the next couple of years.

You can follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports. You can find his Knicks podcast, "The Bank Shot," on WFAN.com, RADIO.COM, the RADIO.COM app, iTunes and other podcast platforms.