The NFL prediction business is not for the faint of heart. No one seems to know much about anything before the first games kick off.
When I looked back at what I wrote about the Jets at this time last season, I burrowed my head in shame. I was way off on four of my five prop picks.
But, like field goal kickers who shank one, you just have to flush it and move on to the next opportunity. With that in mind, here are my predictions for the 2019 Jets.
1) Speaking of kickers: Kaare Vedvik won't finish the season.
In case you forgot, prior general manager Mike Maccagnan was extremely lucky last season in his kicker search. Jason Myers was acquired on waivers before the third preseason game. He didn't just beat out Taylor Bertolet to win the regular season job; there were reports that the Jets were still auditioning veterans like Dan Bailey and Roberto Aguayo just before cut day. Myers, of course, went on to earn a Pro Bowl berth.
Maccagnan looked a gift horse in the mouth -- and then slaughtered it. Despite having about $100 million in salary cap space this offseason, he couldn't find room for Myers, who subsequently took Seattle's four-year, $15.45 million ($5.5 million guaranteed) offer.
Instead, Maccagnan signed Chandler Catanzaro, who did an adequate job for the Jets in 2017. Well, Catanzaro must have been so embarrassed by his performance in the preseason opener versus the Giants, missing two of three extra points, he decided to retire. New GM Joe Douglas hastily brought Bertolet back as the only replacement candidate. It was Bertolet's job to lose, and he lost it by going 2-for-4 on extra points and 5-for-8 on field goals the rest of the preseason. Bertolet was named on the Jets' 53-man roster Saturday as a formality. Vedvik was signed 24 hours later after getting axed by the Vikings, who traded a fifth-round pick to Baltimore for him a few weeks earlier. He was that bad.
The Jets had such incredible kicker karma last season. Flukes like that won't happen two years in a row. This will be a season-long roller-coaster ride.
2) The Jets' receptions leader will be ...
Jamison Crowder. I wrote about Gang Green's slot receiver after he was featured in the starters' sole drive against the Giants. I know he's been quiet since (one catch, 8 yards), but what you see in these exhibitions is very often not what you get when the games count. Underneath passing rules the modern NFL. With tight end Chris Herndon suspended for the first four games due to violating the league's substance abuse policy, Crowder will be quarterback Sam Darnold's safe haven. Marquee free agent acquisition Le'Veon Bell will also provide Darnold an outlet out of the backfield, but I am skeptical that he will be posting massive numbers after sitting out all last year due to a contract dispute in Pittsburgh. I can see backup Ty Montgomery eating into Bell's opportunities to keep him fresh.
3) Take the over on Darnold TD passes.
According to a recent SNY.com article, oddsmakers have set the over/under on Darnold's 2019 touchdown passes at 24.5. That's way too low. New coach Adam Gase will unleash the sophomore QB to the tune of at least 30 TDs. I expect the Jets to be much more aggressive in the red zone than they were under the defensive-oriented Todd Bowles. The play designs they've already exhibited in the preseason were just a blurb in the playbook -- look for even more creative ways to score when the games count.
4) On the other hand, the Jets' secondary will be in the bottom five of the NFL's rankings of TD passes surrendered.
The league average last season was about 26.5 TD passes allowed. The Jets were tied for the 12th most with 29. That number will rise to the mid 30s this season. This team has an inadequate pass rush and a dearth of cornerbacks who can cover. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will be blitzing often to get pressure, but it also will leave plenty of room for opponents to make big plays. Any spate of injuries at cornerback like in this preseason, and it will be lights out. No. 1 corner Trumaine Johnson is "on track" to play in the regular season opener Sunday versus Buffalo following a hamstring injury, per Gase, but I can't seem to shake from my mind the first play in Week 10 last season when the Bills' immortal Matt Barkley-to-Robert Foster combination torched Johnson for 47 yards. In their first six games, the Jets will face quarterbacks Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and Brady again. I'm seeing 17 TDs surrendered there and another 17 in the New York's less stressful end-of-season slate.
5) The Jets' streak of losing records in one-score games will continue.
As bad as the Jets have been in the last three seasons, at least half their games were decided by eight or fewer points in each year. A big factor in the Jets hiring Gase in January, I would imagine, must have been his remarkable 20-6 record in one-score games during his three seasons in Miami. The Jets, by contrast, were 9-16 in close games during the same period, including 0-4 versus Gase. In fact, New York hasn't posted a winning mark in one-score games since its 2013 campaign under Rex Ryan. The 2015 team that went 10-6 would have secured a playoff berth were it not for Bowles' 4-5 record in tight contests, particularly the brutal 22-17 loss in the finale in Buffalo.
My reasoning here has nothing to do with "same old Jets." It's about not trusting this defense to make a play to halt a game-deciding drive. I can give Gase and Williams the benefit of the doubt, but the players on the field do not inspire confidence.
2019 Prediction: 7-9
For a FAN's perspective of the Nets, Devils and Jets, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1.
