As the clock ticked past midnight into Wednesday morning, I was praying that some other NFL team on a white horse would snatch free agent running back Le'Veon Bell away from the Jets.
The way the Vikings swooped in to sign Kirk Cousins a year ago, saving Gang Green from a $90 million guarantee over three seasons for a middling quarterback.
Alas, it turned out that the Jets were only bidding against themselves for Bell, according to several media reports. The ex-Steeler took time from promoting his album to post on Instagram on Wednesday morning that he agreed to terms with New York.
The four-year, $52.5 million deal, with $35 million guaranteed and a maximum value of nearly $61 million with incentives, doesn't seem that outlandish on its face.
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However, you know there are two avenues from here. Bell either:
A) Outperforms his contract and becomes unhappy. This is a player who allegedly turned down more money (with less guarantees) from the Steelers before sitting out the entire 2018 season. Bell just watched his former teammate Antonio Brown force his way out of Pittsburgh after just two seasons into a lucrative five-year contract extension. Reports indicated that Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan gave Bell a deadline to make a decision. That may have been the wise tact for a franchise that has a history of getting jilted (Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr reneged on a reported agreement on Tuesday), but if Bell has it in his mind that he left money on the table, we're going to hear about it.
Or ...
B) Underperforms his contract, which in my opinion is the more likely scenario given his choice of destination.
In the midst of the Jets' miserable 4-12 2018 campaign, I laid out the reasons that they should pass on Bell, whose average of 129 yards from scrimmage per game is the highest rate of any NFL back with at least 60 games played, ahead of Jim Brown, per ESPN's Rich Cimini.
The Steelers were stacked on offense, with future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Brown and an offensive line that, according to Cimini, allowed Bell to average a league-high 3.09 seconds behind the line of scrimmage on his 2017 carries. Only 24 percent of his rushing attempts came while facing a loaded box, the NFL's third lowest rate.
The Jets are coming off a season when they needed an outlier 323-yard gashing of Denver on the ground to avoid having the league's worst yards per attempt by a figurative mile. Only Robby Anderson, a restricted free agent, scares anyone among Jets receivers. And while Sam Darnold had a decent rookie season, he's got a long way to go to earn the league's respect like Roethlisberger.
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The fact that the Steelers were able to plug in second-year back James Conner in Bell's place without missing much of a beat underscores not only Bell's relative value, but the value of the running back position in general.
And it's here where it's become clear that Maccagnan just doesn't get it. He continues to allocate the most resources to what the modern game has deemed the least valued positions.
There's a reason why Bell will be just one of three NFL running backs (joining the Rams' Todd Gurley and the Cardinals' David Johnson) with an average annual salary of over $8.5 million in 2019. This is a passing league.
It's not just Bell. Maccagnan's other big splash -- a reported five-year, $85 million ($51 million guaranteed) deal with former Ravens inside linebacker C.J. Mosley -- was also a misallocation of salary-cap space.
Mosley is a terrific player, a four-time Pro Bowler, who reportedly needed to see "a gap" in the offers between New York and Baltimore before he would agree to relocate.
However, Mosley is a tackle compiler. He doesn't get to the quarterback (0.5 sacks in 2018), create turnovers (one interception, zero forced fumbles), and he's not all that fabulous in coverage. The Jets already have a linebacker like that in Avery Williamson, who has an $8 million cap number in 2019.
Now that Barr is no longer an option, the Jets still don't have a pass-rusher off the edge or cover corners to replace Morris Claiborne on the outside and Buster Skrine in the slot, and they could use more upgrades on top of the trade for ex-Raiders guard Kelechi Osemele for the offensive line. That's where Maccagnan should have outbid people with his approximately $100 million in cap space heading into this offseason.
I haven't seen any reports as to what the Jets offered former Bronco Matt Paradis, but they surely had the wherewithal to beat Carolina's three-year, $27 million price tag for the best center on the market, even though he was coming off a broken leg that prematurely ended his 2018 season.
Maccagnan may not be done. There's still some time, money in the vault and viable personnel options that could make this offseason worth the long and painful wait.
For a FAN's perspective of the Nets, Devils and Jets, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1.
