Running back Le'Veon Bell limped off the Jets' training camp practice field after a team rep on Sunday. No worries, the big-money free-agent acquisition just had cramps.
It turns out that Bell is actually in excellent shape for a player who hasn't seen live action since his contract holdout in Pittsburgh began about 18 months ago. He reportedly aced the Jets' preliminary conditioning test. Twice.
Last season, the Jets wilted in the heat of their most crucial moments. Since taking over as New York's head coach in January, Adam Gase has made fourth-quarter performances a recurring theme during his media sessions.
He isn't wrong. NFL parity has leveled the playing fields. Even a woeful Jets club, who went 4-12 last season, featured two games (Detroit and Denver) where they were well ahead through most of the final frame and three games (Jacksonville, Buffalo, and New England) where they were out of it. Those other 11 games? They were right there for the taking in the fourth quarter.
The Jets finished 2-9 in those contests.
Ignoring the five blowouts in either direction, the Jets were outscored 115-59 in the fourth quarter and overtime. How well the Jets improve on those harrowing results will determine how successful Gase will be in Year 1 in New York.
In his last three seasons with Miami, Gase went 20-6 in one-possession score games. In 2018, the Dolphins were blown out five times, which is one reason why their minus-65 fourth quarter (and overtime) point differential was even worse than New York's minus-62. Miami was outscored 55-10 in those five one-sided affairs. The Jets were just minus-six during fourth quarters when the mission was to "get out of Dodge" quickly and safely. All that meant was Gang Green did a better job than the Fins maintaining their efforts through the final whistles no matter what the scoreboard read.
Yet Miami went 7-4 in close games last season against a very similar schedule to New York's with talent that was not significantly superior. Horrendous backup quarterback Brock Osweiler won two of five starts.
Why the difference? Here were the deciding factors:
1) TURNOVERS
The Dolphins were plus-1 in the takeaway/giveaway department in 11 close fourth quarters. Three of their six turnovers occurred in Week 5 against Cincinnati, their most egregious loss of the season. They committed just three total fourth-quarter turnovers the rest of the way.
In their respective 11 close games, the Jets lost the fourth-quarter turnover battle, 8-2. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold threw five picks trying to engineer comebacks in Cleveland and Miami. However, in his last four starts after returning from a foot injury, three of which were one-possession games, he had zero fourth-quarter interceptions.
Expect Darnold's ball security to continue to improve as the game slows down for him this season.
2) PRESSURING THE QB
I remember the legendary coach Bill Parcells' maxim that you can't win in the NFL without a fourth-quarter pass rush. The Jets didn't get to opposing QBs nearly enough in 2018.
They were out-sacked, 13-5, in close fourth quarters. As a result, their defense was absolutely shredded when protecting leads down the stretch versus Cleveland, Tennessee, Houston and Green Bay.
Had the Jets been able to hold onto free agent linebacker Anthony Barr in March, it would have gone a long way towards improving this deficiency. He posted the league's highest pressure percentage (13.8%) among players with at least 75 pass rushes, per ProFootballFocus.com. Alas, Barr reneged on a verbal agreement and re-signed with Minnesota.
That leaves Gang Green with the same, mostly ineffectual edge rushers as last season. Linebacker Jordan Jenkins led the club with seven sacks, but his overall pressure rate was a middling 6.9% on 305 pass-rush snaps.
The Jets drafted interior lineman Quinnen Williams with the third overall pick in April, hoping that his unique skillset would help bring more pressure up the middle. If he's the real deal, Williams' presence could help defensive end Leonard Williams, who is entering the final year of his contract. As ESPN's Rich Cimini noted, Leonard Williams recorded just one fourth-quarter sack in 2018.
3) DISCIPLINE!
In terms of raw numbers, the loss to the Packers may have been an outlier—eight accepted Jets penalties for 109 yards in just the fourth quarter and overtime alone. However, this is a franchise whose history is rife with tales featuring the most untimely fouls committed with games on the line.
Two weeks earlier, the Jets committed three penalties to help keep the Titans' game-winning drive alive within the final two minutes.
It wasn't always defensive fouls that doomed New York. Both games versus Miami last season were one-possession contests. The Jets committed a combined five penalties (four on offense, one on special teams) for 35 yards in those fourth quarters; the Dolphins had none. In both games, Darnold had the Jets on the edge of the red zone during key fourth-quarter possessions when yellow flags reared their ugly heads, stalling those drives.
To be fair, the Dolphins weren't the league's most disciplined team. They recorded the 18th most fouls and were ranked 8th in most penalty yards surrendered. Rookie cornerback Minka Fitzpatrick was responsible for 152 of those yards - the most of any NFL defensive back by 21 yards.
However, when the games were decided in fourth quarters, the Dolphins under Gase tended to avoid the negative plays that always seem to whack the Jets in the knees.
For a FAN's perspective of the Nets, Devils and Jets, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1.
