Who is Sam Darnold?
The Jets, who started team drills at training camp practices over the weekend, have an inkling about their supposed franchise quarterback, who was the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, but no conclusion can be fairly drawn.
Darnold is entering the third season on his rookie contract, but the organization doesn't have as much information as you'd think before a decision must be made on his future. The Jets need to see real growth this season.
Unfortunately, just like in his first two campaigns, Darnold will be operating with the severe handicap of the limited abilities of those who surround him. The COVID-19 pandemic has only exacerbated the situation, specifically the pains of integrating a brand-new offensive line and pair of outside receivers into a sub-standard Adam Gase-coached offense. There are only four weeks until the opener in Buffalo, and already, two potential starting receivers – Vyncint Smith and second-round pick Denzel Mims – are injured.
After the 2020 season (assuming, of course, it will be played), the Jets will consider whether to invoke Darnold's fifth-year option. The new collective bargaining agreement altered the formula for setting option values from draft slot to performance-related, but Darnold's price tag will still be steep even as a "Level 2" player (meaning he plays at least 50 percent of this season's snaps and doesn't earn a Pro Bowl berth).
Using 2020 cap numbers per overthecap.com, the average of the salaries of the third-through-20th highest-paid QBs is about $20.7 million, which would result in a hefty 111 percent raise from Darnold's $9.8 million guaranteed 2021 cap charge. That's a big pill to swallow if you're not sure.
Darnold's results to date do not support such largesse. He ranked 24th in ProFootballFocus.com's grades among the 31 QBs with at least 300 dropbacks last season. His biggest problem, going back to his college days at USC, has been inconsistency; he has always been the guy whose stats look really good if you remove his three worst games, but if you only count those three bad games, he's the worst quarterback in the league.
For the Jets' sake, that had better not be who Darnold really is: a QB who makes a fantastic highlight-reel throw on one series and then tosses the ball into coverage on the next one. Per PFF, he averaged 142 yards per "turnover-worthy play" last season, the sixth-worst rate in the NFL.
The Jets need to see a more even-keeled Darnold this season, because the history of the league isn't rife with tales of quarterbacks who overcame three lousy seasons as a starter out of the gate. In modern times, the real franchise QBs typically make their leap by Year 2, and if they haven't after Year 3, teams are usually better off moving on.
It's hard to envision the Jets making that shocking of a call given their aforementioned situation. Prior general manager Mike Maccagnan may have made the pick, but successor Joe Douglas knows his upcoming option decision will have to be multi-dimensional.
It won't be like how the Bills made it easy to evaluate Josh Allen, who was chosen four slots after Darnold in 2018. Buffalo put legitimate pieces around their QB on both sides of the ball. Allen, whose passing metrics last season were similar to Darnold's, will have no excuses for underachieving this season.
You might think that Douglas having no "ties" to Darnold, as well as five more years on his own contract, lightens the degree of difficulty should he decline to exercise the option. To the contrary, Douglas will have to objectively weigh the setback to the franchise should it require a transition to a new quarterback, versus the likelihood that the Jets lock themselves into a Blake Bortles situation for a couple of years.
I still believe Darnold has all the tools to make it. He has a strong, accurate arm when he's not getting blasted, he has the mobility to extend plays, and he is even improving as it relates to the most important skill: processing what he's seeing at the appropriate speed.
It would be helpful if Darnold could stay healthy; he missed three games in both 2018 (foot) and 2019 (mononucleosis), and I pray Darnold is disciplined with his mask wearing). However, even if he plays all 16 games, another dreary season could put the Jets in a position where they're looking for their future quarterback next spring, whether that be via the draft or in free agency.
If that happens, those trying to convince me of the soundness of Jamal Adams trade point to the extra first round picks as assets that can help the Jets move up in the draft to select their next QB hope. Sometimes, though, a team just needs its quarterback to elevate it beyond the limits of his supporting cast; in Seattle, Russell Wilson has succeeded despite a dreadful offensive line and head coach Pete Carroll's inexplicably conservative game plans, and Tom Brady won no matter which Patriots no-names were his targeted receivers.
Can Darnold be that guy? He may have to prove it in the most difficult of seasons.
For a FAN's perspective of the Nets, Devils and Jets, follow Steve on Twitter: @SteveLichtenst1
Follow WFAN on Social MediaTwitter | Facebook | Instagram | YouTube | Twitch
