This is the most interesting postseason the Yankees have had in some time. First of all, there is a heightened expectation that this is their year to win the World Series.
I know, I know. They're supposed to win every year. But the slow burn since 2017 is now ablaze. As I told you back in the spring, first things first — the Yankees needed to win the division for the first time since 2012. Check.
Now it's on to the postseason tournament, a different kind of gauntlet in this wild-card era than it used to be. There are no gimmes, no cupcakes, especially this year when it could take 96 wins just to earn the second wild-card spot in the American League.
And the roster decisions the Yankees will face — both with their rotation and their lineup — are more intriguing than ever before. What's it going to look like? Let me take a crack at that now.
Here's what I think the Yankees playoff roster might look like on Oct. 4 for the AL Division Series. For our purposes, we will assume both Gary Sánchez and Edwin Encarnación are both healthy (a reasonable expectation given their status at the moment). This is based only on my own feelings of how I think the Yankees will approach it, although things can obviously change between now and then.
I see the Yankees taking 12 position players: catchers Sánchez and Austin Romine, DJ LeMahieu at first base, Gleyber Torres at second base, Didi Gregorius at shortstop and Gio Urshela at third base. Outfielders Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton and Cameron Maybin. Encarnación as DH and Tyler Wade as a utility man.
The Yanks' best defensive alignment, while maximizing offense, has Urshela and LeMahieu at the corners. Encarnación is a force in the lineup who had some big postseason moments with Toronto a few years ago. And Wade's ability to run for at least two or three people in a big spot gives him value, while a healthy Encarnación seems to make Luke Voit a bit redundant. That's a tough call if they indeed leave Voit off this roster, but I think it's just too hard to carry Voit as a pinch hitter and backup first baseman.
Now to the 13 pitchers, and the first 10 are easy: Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, J.A. Happ, Chad Green, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman.
So what do they look for in the last three spots? With Domingo German's situation throwing a wrench into this, it would seem both Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa have room to make the roster. Both have pitched well this month, with Loaisiga absolutely filthy in his last outing. Meanwhile, Stephen Tarpley could be a huge piece to handle lefties. Nestor Cortes Jr. is interesting for the length option, but he seems to have petered out a bit toward the end of the season.
Remember, the injuries to Aaron Hicks and Dellin Betances drastically alter the configuration here. If Hicks were healthy and we're still talking about 13 pitchers, then I am discussing leaving off either Stanton or Encarnacion plus Voit, or taking two of those three and scrapping Wade's speed off the bench. And if German and Betances were on this roster, then it might only leave room for Tarpley as a left-on-left guy.
So what kind of rotation might they use? Well, based off this weekend's rotation in Texas, it lines up as Paxton, Severino and Tanaka. But there's some wiggle room here since the first game isn't until Friday, Oct. 4. So here's how I would do it.
Luis Severino in Game 1 makes a lot of sense to me. He'll be on five days' rest after he pitches Saturday in Texas. And if you expect his stamina to be less than normal since he just came back this month, the entire bullpen will be well rested with four days off after the regular season ends. So the Game 1 starter doesn't need to give you more than four to five innings.
So then my Game 2 starter is Paxton, who gives you the highest potential for length. Paxton has been outstanding for two months now, pitching to a 2.25 ERA over 10 starts (all wins) since the beginning of August.
That means I start Tanaka in Game 3, and that might seem strange given his home/road splits. But take away two road starts against Boston (including the one in London), and Tanaka's road ERA drops from its horrific 6.16 to a pedestrian 4.36. And his career splits are 3.36 home and 3.86 road (again, if I take away those same two games this year). It is a significant split, but remember this: He will likely only get two turns through the batting order before Aaron Boone goes to the bullpen. That third turn through is where Tanaka tends to get hit the hardest and sees his numbers driven higher. And following Paxton in Game 2 and then a travel day before Game 3, the bullpen is once again rested.
Game 4 leaves me with plenty of options. Severino isn't one of them because it's only three days' rest after Game 1. That's too risky for me after waiting all season to get him back. I could use Happ or Sabathia. But my first choice for Game 4 is Chad Green opening if he hasn't been taxed in games 2 and 3. Then I could use Happ and Sabathia to get me back to the high-leverage guys in the pen. Two days in a row for all those guys is not a problem here, especially if there is a chance to close out the series in four games.
And then if it gets to Game 5, I have both Severino and Paxton on full rest ready to dominate. Plus a travel day off to rest my relievers. All hands on deck.
That's my plan. Let's see how close it comes to the real thing.
Follow Sweeny on Twitter at @YankeesWFAN.
