The big game is almost here, and along with it comes endless possibilities when it comes to betting on it. The prop market, for one, is insane right now, as there are countless bets you can make on the Super Bowl this Sunday. Don’t worry though, I’ve gone through all of the various bets for you, especially when it comes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
So, without further ado, here are my four favorite Tampa Bay related prop bets that I’m eyeing for Super Bowl LV.
BetQL has predictions on the side, total, and all top player props for Super Bowl LV. Sign up with BetQL today and become a better bettor!
Bucs +10.5 rushing yards vs. Chiefs (-110) - William Hill
This is one of my favorite prop bets of the weekend. I loved it so much that I hit it as soon as I saw it offered last week. Tampa Bay is ranked first in defensive rush DVOA per Football Outsiders. On the flip side, Kansas City is ranked 31st in that same metric. That stuck out to me right off the bat.
Kansas City also rushed for just 87 yards in the first meeting between these two teams. I liked that because even with the Chiefs up big early, they didn’t have a monster day on the ground.
Tampa Bay limits big plays and they should be able to pressure Patrick Mahomes in this game. I see that combination leading to a lot of dump-offs and underneath passes for Mahomes as opposed to runs.
I foresee this game as a back and forth classic that comes down to the last drive, so I don’t envision the Bucs abandoning the run at any point. I have this number being a lot closer, so I’ll gladly grab the yards.
How Many Sacks Will Jason Pierre-Paul Have? (1 or more: +125) - Fox Bet
JPP finished with 9.5 sacks this season and is heating up at the right time. Pierre-Paul has two sacks through the Buccaneers’ first three playoff games. He also sacked Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City’s 27-24 win over Tampa Bay back in Week 12.
Pierre-Paul is also no stranger to the Super Bowl, having been a member of the New York Giants team that stunned the unbeaten Tom Brady led New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI title. I like experience at this big stage, no butterflies.
With Kansas City’s offensive line reeling and in flux after losing tackle Eric Fisher to injury, this is a good spot here for JPP to cash in. Especially at +125.
Will Tom Brady throw an Interception? Yes (-140) - William Hill
Let me start by saying I love Tom Brady, and I hate laying this kind of juice on a bet. With that said, I will be on the yes bet in this spot. In the Bucs’ 19 games this season, Brady has thrown an interception in eight of them. When the Bucs lost to the Chiefs earlier this year, Brady threw two picks in that contest. TB12 also threw three interceptions in the NFC Championship Game against the Packers.
While Brady is smart with the ball, I’ve noticed him taking more chances on third downs, which was evident in their game against the Packers. In that game, he took a lot of deep shots and threw up 50/50 balls on third down, but the rationale made sense. Even if the balls were picked off, which they were, the result would be similar to that of a punt. I would play this up to -155.
Tom Brady over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125) - DraftKings
Brady and this offense has been in a groove since their bye week. And, it makes sense given the circumstances: no real offseason, new offense, and different offensive weapons.
Overall, TB12 has averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns per game this season, and he had at least two passing touchdowns in every game since their loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 9.
Tampa has also been utilizing the pass more near the goal line, so even if their rushing attack is having some success, I see the ball in Brady’s hands near the goal line. Speaking of the red zone, the Chiefs are the worst team in football when it comes to opponent’s red zone scoring percentage, so the Bucs should be able to score points if they get near it.
Brady did throw for three touchdowns against these Chiefs in a 27-24 loss in the first meeting this year, but the Bucs were down early in that game. While I don’t see the game playing out the same way, if the Bucs want to win, they will need all the points they can get against Mahomes and co. At +125, I like the value in this bet.
As always, make sure you shop around for the best lines and prices.
Odds current as of Thursday morning
Vikas Chokshi covers the gambling industry for BetQL and his written work can be found on the sports betting vertical of Radio.com. He has an extensive network of oddsmakers and appears frequently on podcasts, radio and television shows. His previous work can be found at The Action Network, VSiN, Gaming Today, Front Office Sports and The Big Lead.
You can find him at @docksquad33 on Twitter.