There is no one more accustomed to playing in the Super Bowl than Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. Mr. Brady is appearing in his 10th title game and looking to win his seventh Lombardi Trophy.
How will Tampa Bay utilize No. 12 in this one? Let’s take a look at his props for the big game:
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday morning
Passing yards: 295.5 Over -112/Under -112
Completions: 24.5 Over -112/Under -112
Completion %: 62.5 Over -150/Under +120
Pass attempts: 39.5 Over -112/Under -112
Throw an interception: YES -180, NO +142
To score: +425
First touchdown: +3500
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Before we pinpoint some props, we should discuss how the Bucs plan to attack this game. Tampa Bay typically looks to go vertical in the passing game and move quickly. The team is in the bottom third of the league in time of possession per game.
However, trying to go too fast with Patrick Mahomes on the other sideline may be counter productive. Even if the Buccaneers look to get the ground game going, this is still a pass happy offense. Brady’s arm is likely going to be the main point of attack.
The Bucs have the fifth highest pass play percentage in the NFL this season at over 62%. It’s in their DNA to throw and it is why I also like Brady to throw over 39.5 pass attempts.
TB12 went over 295 passing yards in nine of 19 starts this season including against the Chiefs earlier this season.
Even though Tampa Bay was playing from behind in the first meeting, I expect Brady to go over 295.5 passing yards in the Super Bowl. In the week 12 contest, he completed 27 of 41 passes for 345 yards, along with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
At +125, I lean towards over 2.5 passing touchdowns for the Tampa QB as well. Brady has thrown for three or more touchdowns in seven starts this season including the playoffs. Kansas City has the worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing a touchdown on more than 74% of opponents drives, and I see this game becoming a back and forth affair.
The six-time Super Bowl champion has some juicy odds to score on the ground. He is pretty much strictly a pocket passer at his advanced age, but Brady does love the QB sneak. He has four rushing touchdowns this year including the postseason.
With it being the Super Bowl, I see a scenario where the Buccaneers are at the one-yard line and TB12 punches it in himself. Throwing a dart on Brady to score at +425 is worth a shot.
Lastly, the Brady to throw an interception -180 is an interesting prop. He is the most successful quarterback of all time, but has thrown an INT in five of his nine prior Super Bowls starts.
The Chiefs are very successful at turning over their opponents. They are tied for fifth in the league with 16 interceptions during the regular season.
Brady threw 12 interceptions on the season and three against Green Bay in the NFC championship game. I won’t be laying that price with books shading towards Brady throwing a pick, but it is interesting to note such heavy movement in that direction.
These are just a few of the myriad of ways to bet on Brady’s props in the big game. I expect we see his arm utilized a ton in this matchup that should feature a ton of scoring and aggressive play calling. Enjoy the game!
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary