One of the more intriguing developments leading up to this month's NFL Draft is the reported decline in stock of Oregon star Kayvon Thibodeaux.
The feared edge rusher has fallen from a potential No. 1 overall pick to conceivably coming off the board in the mid-teens, according to a recent head-turning report by ESPN draft guru Matt Miller.
At least one high-profile mock draft seemed to confirm Thibodeaux's apparent slide, when Peter King of NBC Sports had the Jets snagging him with the 10th overall pick, their second of the first round.
The Jets need help at several positions, though many mocks have them honing in on help in the secondary and at wide receiver -- and King, for his part, has the Jets taking highly touted Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner with the fourth overall pick. They have also been previously reported to be high on Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton.
It makes plenty sense for the Jets to target pass-catchers and defensive backs with their first two picks, since they struggled badly to defend the pass last season, and because their pursuit of Tyreek Hill seems to signal their interest in acquiring another dynamic target for second-year quarterback Zach Wilson in the passing game.
After all, the modern game is largely predicated on passing the ball -- and stopping the pass.
It'd be hard to argue with that approach for the Jets, but edge rusher is also a position of need for them. While their front seven was probably their best unit last year, they were better at stopping the run than getting after the passer, ranking in the bottom-third of the league with just 33 sacks. Even the return of the Jets' most accomplished pass rusher, Carl Lawson, from a devastating ruptured Achilles is only likely to move the needle so much.
The knock on Thibodeaux, at least according to Miller, is that he hasn't interviewed well during the pre-draft process, and there are questions about his effort and overall production in college. A prized five-star recruit coming out of high school, he initially lived up to the expectations with a big freshman year before tailing off in the virus-marred 2020 season and fighting through injury last season.
Still, Thibodeaux finished his college career with more sacks and tackles for loss than fellow edge-rushing star Aidan Hutchinson of Michigan, in one fewer season and six fewer games.
Meanwhile the Jets are seemingly doing their homework on Thibodeaux, attending Oregon's pro day last week and reportedly later meeting with him.
Seeing Thibodeaux fall all the way to No. 10 could perhaps require some developments that, as of now, are far from certain, such as two quarterbacks coming off the board within the top eight picks -- just as King has predicted with the Panthers taking Kenny Pickett and the Falcons taking Malik Willis.
Still, it's far from inconceivable, and the Jets would surely be tempted to take a player who at one time was regarded as a strong candidate to go first overall. The floor for defensive ends feels lower than other positions, but the ceiling also seems higher -- again, stopping the pass is of the utmost importance, and every secondary looks a lot better with a front four that can create pressure.
Thibodeaux might be a dicey proposition at No. 4, but at No. 10 he feels like something of a steal.
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