Three points is, by far, the most common margin of victory in NFL games. Over the last 20 years, approximately 15% of all games have been decided by that exact margin.
It’s also the most common spread in NFL betting — including three Week 8 games at BetMGM, among them the New York Jets (-3) vs. New York Giants — at approximately 15%.
Here are some notes for the 3-point spread since 2003:
Favorites have posted a season-long ROI of better than +1% only four times in the last 20 years. At -4.6% through the first seven weeks of the 2023 season, they’re on pace for a fifth negative-ROI season in the last five years.
Road favorites are better than home favorites. Their ROI is nearly 11 percentage points higher (-0.9% vs. -12%).
Road underdogs are better than home underdogs: +7.6% vs. -3.2%.
Favorites struggle in low-total games. They’re 33-48-7 (.407) in games with a total that closed at 37 or lower. The Jets-Giants total is currently 36.5.
Favorites have won 13 of 19 games this season and 35 of 51 games since the start of last season. It’s on pace for the best two-year moneyline winning percentage (.686) and ROI (+11.8%) in the last 20 years.
This would be just the second time in the last eight seasons — and the first time since 2018 — the Jets are a 3-point favorite, the fewest among all teams.
It would be the second time the Giants are a 3-point underdog this year (Week 7 vs. Washington) and the ninth time since 2020, the most among all teams. They’re 5-4 ATS and 5-4 overall.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for all Week 8 odds and more online sports betting opportunities.