There have been only four regular-season NFL games in the last decade that closed with a spread of 2 or fewer points and a total of 36 or fewer points. All four games involved either the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers. The fifth instance could happen in Week 7. And it would include both the Jets and Steelers.
As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM, the Steelers are a 1.5-point favorite for their Sunday Night Football matchup against the Jets. The total is 36.
Spread: Steelers -1.5 (-110), Jets +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 36 (-110), Under 36 (-110)
Moneyline: Steelers -120, Jets +100
Before the Jets’ failed cover as a 2-point underdog in a five-point loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13 last season, underdogs had five straight wins against the spread in these low-total, short-favorite games.
In 40 total opportunities since 2003, favorites are .500 (20-20). Home teams are slightly profitable (3.8%) thanks to a 22-19 (.537) record. (There are more games in the second trend because two games had pick ’em spreads.)
Moneyline records are identical for both favorites (20-20) and home teams (22-19), meaning none of those games were decided by one point. Historically, approximately 4% of all NFL games have a one-point margin, therefore it’s unsurprisingly none of the 41 games within this trend have been one-point games.
Visit the online sportsbook for updated NFL odds, including Steelers odds and Jets odds each week.
If you’re in Pennsylvania, New York, or New Jersey and don’t have a BetMGM account, check sportsbook promos for a potential welcome offer or BetMGM Refer A Friend bonus.