Darnold, Fields, or Wilson?
That seems to be the question to the question “who will be the Jets’ quarterback in 2021,” and when Matt Miller of TheDraftScout.com joined Moose & Maggie on Wednesday…his answer was, in the end, that it should be one of the latter two.
“You have to make a decision on that fifth-year option, so it makes sense to start over,” Miller said. “The thinking is that you’re not going to draft second overall again, but even if you do, there’s no one on the radar right now for next year that is as good as the top of this year’s class.”
It seems as if Jets GM Joe Douglas maybe agrees somewhat, as he said in a press conference Tuesday that "We think Sam is a dynamic playmaker in this league with dynamic talent. But if calls are made, I will answer them.”
As for Miller, his strategy for evaluating players is to put a number grade on players, which he says helps take emotion out of the grades, both in the moment and later looking back to avoid revisionist history. Darnold was his No. 1 QB in the class of 2018 (with Josh Allen second), but he said that when all is said and done, both Fields and Wilson will have higher grades than Darnold did.
“With Sam, we saw at USC that the ball came out slowly, and he had long delivery, but he played best when taken out of the system of their offense,” Miller said. “Look at the Texas game – they went to a no-huddle, and he got better.”
It’s “not crazy” that Darnold could blossom given a better structure or more offensive weapons – Miller’s words were “get him away from Adam Gase and he could develop like Ryan Tannehill did in Tennessee” – but because the game has changed so much since even 2018, that might not be viable.
“In 2018, people scoffed at athlete-first QBs like Kyler Murray, Lamar Allen, or Josh Allen,” Miller said. “Now, we want people that move.”
Miller noted that Wilson, particularly, is more Kyler Murray – “iffy with some injury concerns, has a lot to learn but can win you ball games” – than “best in the world” Mahomes or “burgeoning bust” Drew Lock, the three NFL starters with similar styles to Wilson.
So does that mean Fields is the right guy, given some concerns on Wilson?
“Are we not talking enough about how athletic Justin Fields is? He has the strongest arm in the class, and at 6-foot-3, I see a faster, bigger-armed Dak Prescott, and I can’t believe Jets fans who don’t want that,” Miller said. “Wilson, you watch him play and think his talent is rare, but then you realize who he is playing. He makes a lot of big plays where you wonder if he’d get away with that against better teams. We’re falling in love with these “YOLO” balls he throws more than his skills, but I can see the Patrick Mahomes comps; I don’t think his arm is as strong, but there are plays that get you excited.”
Miller notes that part of the reason he had both Mahomes and Jackson, particularly, rated too low is because of devaluing them because of their college scheme, putting too much stock in their successes as “system success” rather than a product of their skills.
Then again, that seems to be exactly what may be happening to Fields, or even North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, right now as Wilson seems to rocket up boards.
“We fall in love with what we don’t know, the story instead of the traits. Wilson is a great prospect and people rave about him, but the draft is a long process, and hype right now doesn’t always maintain,” Miller said. “With Fields and Lance, maybe they are unfairly being slept on because the most prominent quarterbacks to come from their systems recently couldn’t do it. Dwayne Haskins was a bust in DC and Carson Wentz fell apart in Philly, so people are scouting the helmet instead of the player.”
In the end, Miller has Fields ranked ahead of Wilson in a very close race. Of course, he has Deshaun Watson (whom he calls “the third-best QB in the NFL) ahead of both, but given that he doesn’t see that as a realistic option, it’s up to the Jets to figure out which draftee would be better in their schemes.
“Every player has holes you can poke in him, it’s about figuring out which ones you can cover,” he said. “I think you trade Darnold and get the assets – I’d be calling Chicago every day – then draft whoever you think is the guy at two, then look to add highly productive playmakers on defense at 23 to plug these premium holes.”
And in round two, with those assets that currently include the No. 34 pick and could include another second-rounder, if that’s truly the starting point as a return in a Darnold deal? Miller says perhaps a running back, or, in a move reminiscent of how the Jets may have gotten the best offensive tackle of the 2020 class despite selecting last, another bookend that will make thoughts of drafting Oregon’s Penei Sewell disappear.
“Joe Douglas needs more hits like Mekhi Becton, and having a lot of assets help that chance,” Miller said. “This tackle class, for instance, is good at the top with Sewell and Northwestern’s Rashawn Tucker, and maybe there are a couple other Top 20 picks, but there’s a sweet spot in the late first or early second that is another eight or nine deep. It’s a good group; it’s not four or five tackles who will all go early like last year, but 1-12 will all be NFL starters.”
Check out Miller’s entire segment with Moose & Maggie below!
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